The first time they ever played a professional match, Rafael Nadal beat Roger Federer in straight sets right here in Miami. It was 2004, back when the Sony Ericsson Open was called the Nasdaq 100 Open (which goes directly to the point Randy made earlier: corporate sponsors come and go, place names remain the same). Second time they played a professional match? The very next year, right here in Miami, in the final, when it was still best of five. After racing out to a two-set lead, Rafa wearied (yes, there was a time when the youngster got tired on the court), choked as well (he still does that), and lost the final in five sets.
For the first time since 2005, Rafa and Raja will play a match in the United States, in the only venue where they've played a match in the United States. Rafa leads four sets to two. And while his first serve has looked shaky over the last two events (though it got him out of trouble in the opening game of the third set last night), he's clearly a better player now than he was back then. Raja, not so much. Which means Rafa is supposed to win easily right? Well, Raja got a virtual walkover yesterday afternoon when Gilles Simon retired after 3 games citing a stiff neck. Rafa was on court later in the evening and night battling Tomas Berdych to a 3-set victory. Somewhere during that match, he needed his right shoulder tended. Some might say that for Raja to defeat Rafa these days, he'll need a lot of luck. Well....
I, for one, am actually more interested in the first semifinal between Novak Djokovic and Mardy Fish. Yes, Djoke has literally been unbeatable in 2011. But he's got to lose sooner or later. And while Fish has never been able to beat the Serb in five tries, outside of the US Open, Fish has won a set in each of their three meetings in the United States, all on hard courts, one in the finals of Indian Wells three years ago. As Jim Courier always says, if you can win one set you can win two. As the last American standing in both draws, Fish will be the overwhelming crowd favorite. The daytime conditions will keep his big serve moving through the court. He'll have to play a near perfect match, though, because Djoke is playing with house money. The only player to participate in the charity soccer event for Japan relief still in the draw, he's looking more like a machine than a tennis player. Frankly, I'm becoming bored by his dominance. It would be just like Fish to end his streak, especially since so few believe he can.
Ultimately, I believe we'll have a repeat of the Indian Wells final two weeks ago. Here's hoping the way there is exciting, dramatic, and full of great tennis.
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