Roland Garros 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

by Mad Professah, contributing writer

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at Roland Garros for 2011. This year, I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 3 men's quarterfinals. Last year I was correct in 2 of 2 2010 French Open men's semifinal predictions.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). The 5-time defending champion played his best tennis of the tournament against the only man who has ever beaten him at Roland Garros, Robin Soderling, in the quarterfinals, dismissing the Swede in straight sets 6-4 6-1 7-6(3). Nadal now has a 43-1 lifetime record on the clay courts in Paris, an astonishing 97.7% winning percentage. For that reason alone, one must consider him the favorite in his semifinal with Andy Murray. Murray looked good in his 7-6(2) 7-5 6-2 against Juan Ignacio Chela in the quarterfinals after surviving a near-death experience in his 5-set tussle with Viktor Troicki in the Round of 16. Head-to-head Nadal leads Murray 10-4 in the career matches, 3-2 in majors, and 3-0 on clay. Murray won a set when they played in Monaco this year and served for the match against Novak Djokovic in the Rome semifinals so his clay bona fides are legitimate. All that being said, Murray has almost no chance to win this match on Friday unless he plays the match of his life (which he has found it difficult to do on the big stage of the 3 major finals he's been in to date as well as the 2010 Wimbledon semifinal) and Nadal plays some of his worst tennis. Nadal is playing to reach his 6th final at Roland Garros in order to try and match Bjorn Borg's all-time record, and Murray is trying to reach his 1st final in Paris. The difference is clear. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). "The best player of today against the best player in history," says World #1 Rafael Nadal. This will be the most mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal since the last mouth-wateringly epic major semifinal these two played at the 2011Australian Open and the one before that at the 2010 US Open where Federer had two match points and lost. There's no question that there is a lot of history on the line, but this time it is mostly on the shoulders of the 24-year-old, not the 29-year-old holder of 16-major singles titles. First, there's the amazing winning streak of 41 matches won in a row in 2011 (I think counting the two Davis Cup matches he won at the end of the year when you don't get prize money or ranking points for those wins is simply silly). If Djokovic wins on Friday he will equal John McEnroe's open era record of the best ever start to a tennis season. Second, the World #1 ranking is in play and for the first time since 2004 someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer could reach the top spot. Becoming #1 is always a momentous point in any great player's career, and this achievement would be one he has had to wait for, for a long, long time. Third, Djokovic is trying to reach his first ever non-hard court major final, to prove that he is really an all-surfaces player. Djokovic reached this point through a walkover when handsome trickster Fabio Fognini withdrew. Federer reached his record 26th major semifinal in the last 7 years by dismissing a still-improving Gael Monfils in front of a rowdy Parisian crowd 6-4 6-3 7-6(3). Federer is in the unusual position of trying to be the spoiler, but he appears to be relishing the challenge. Federer has a 13-9 career head-to-head edge over Djokovic, including 2-1 on clay but a scant 4-3 in majors. However, the Swiss Great is playing some of his best tennis this year and has not dropped a set. He is also the last person to have beaten Novak Djokovic in an ATP Tour match, on Saturday November 27, 2010, exactly 188 days ago. That streak will last a little longer. PREDICTION: Djokovic.

Roland Garros 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

by Mad Professah, contributing writer

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 French Open. Last year, I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Robin Soderling SWE (5). The dream quarterfinal. Rafael Nadal has only ever lost one match at Roland Garros, and it was to his quarterfinal opponent, the World #5 tall, muscular Swede Robin Soderling. He defeated the 4-time defending champion in 2009, in one of the greatest upsets in sports of the last decade; Soderling followed up that upset by repeating it the following year by beating the defending champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinals to end Federer's incredible streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinals. Nadal does not appear to be playing his best tennis this year but still must be considered the favorite considering his overall clay court record. However, Nadal's confidence must be shaken by his two recent losses to Djokovic in two clay court Masters finals this season. Soderling does not lack confidence, and if he plays his best tennis against Nadal's not-best tennis, he will repeat his 2009 result. If Nadal plays at his 2010 level, then the defending champion should get through and possibly win a 6th Roland Garros title, tying Bjorn Borg's record. PREDICTION: Soderling in 4 sets.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Juan Ignacio Chela ARG. Andy Murray's dream draw turned into a nightmare during his 3rd round victory over a lefty qualifier Michael Berrer when he badly twisted his ankle in a 3-set win. He started his next round gingerly, losing the first 5 games of his 4th round match with Serbian Viktor Troicki. The World #4 came within one point of drawing even in the first set but ultimately ended up losing the first two sets 6-4 6-4. However, his movement and attitude visibly improved and he was able to force a fifth and deciding set before darkness fell. I presume he will be able to win the deciding fifth set when play resumes on Tuesday and should have no problem dismissing the 31-year-old Argentine clay court specialist playing in his 3rd career major quarterfinal on Thursday. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets.

Gael Monfils FRA (9) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). Federer continues to write his name in the tennis record books by reaching his 28th consecutive major quarterfinal with an efficient dispatch of countryman Stanislas Wawrinka in the 4th round. While Djokovic is winning universal acclaim and attention by continuing his flawless 2011 season, Federer continues to demonstrate why he has been at the upper echelon of men's tennis for the last seven consecutive years. There are few players in the Top 10 who have even played 28 consecutive major tournaments, and Federer has been in the last 8 or better in 28 consecutive major tournaments. His opponent is the Pride of France, "La Monf" who is in his 3rd quarterfinal at Roland Garros in 4 years. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, he has never won a match on clay against Federer. In fact, last fall in front of a Paris crowd, Monfils won his first match ever (in 6 tries) against the Swiss Great when he saved an incredible 5 match points and went on to win one of the best matches of the year in three tiebreak sets. However, getting through a tough 5-set against the always hard-to-beat David Ferrer in the 4th round was another indicator that the excessively talented, prodigiously athletic Monfils' results may start matching his potential. Federer is yet to lose a set in his 2011 appearance at Roland Garros, and while I expect that streak to end, I also expect he will again find a way to yet another major semifinal and a historic showdown with Novak Djokovic. PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

Fabio Fognini ITA vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). The quarterfinal that wasn't. The puckishly handsome Italian showed he was more than just a pretty face by outlasting clay court specialist Albert Montanes 11-9 in the fifth set despite being unable to move due to suffering a muscle tear (or cramps?) in his leg at 5-6, 15-30. Fognini basically started blasting winners into all the corners on the court to erase 5 match points and controversially emerged with the win. However, he knew that he would have no chance against the red-hot Serbian who has yet to lose a match in 2011 and thus withdrew (on advice of his doctors, who confirmed a 1cm muscle tear via MRI). This is both good news and bad news for Djokovic. It means that he is at least one round further in the tournament than he was last year, which is good news for his campaign to become World #1. He just needs to win one more match to reach his first French Open final and he will attain this goal of being acknowledged (by the computer) as the #1 player in the world. All Djokovic has to do is either beat 16-time major champion Roger Federer or hometown favorite Gael Monfils coming off the biggest win of his career in the semifinals on Friday. Getting to this point via walkover is bad news for Djokovic because he doesn't get credit for the win, so his streak remains at 41-0 for 2011 and that means he can only break John McEnroe's 1984 streak of 42-0 by winning the entire tournament. Plus it means he has a bizarre 4-day break in the middle of a major tournament after playing 3 consecutive days. It will be interesting to see what, if any, these factors have on Djokovic's play in the semifinal. I suspect nothing will deny Djokovic's date with destiny.

Roland Garros: All H̶a̶i̶l̶ Fail AbFab

“By Gad, sir, you are a character. There's never any telling what you'll say or do next, except that it's bound to be something astonishing.”
-- Kasper Gutman, The Maltese Falcon

It was billed as the “starter” match no one would be interested in. But it ended up upstaging  “main features” Nole/Gasquet and JJ/Fran.

Ladies and Gents, I give you AbFab.




Nothing I can say will do credit to this utterly outrageous force of nature.

He is quite simply, the playa’s (as opposed to the player’s) playa, someone that causes impropriety itself to look on with a mixture of befuddlement and awe.

At 7-6 down, and with Montanes only two points away from victory, he reared up (apparently in pain) and simply stood there, forcing the umpire Louise Engzell to come down from the chair. After a brief chat, she appeared to indicate that he should call the trainer. Which of course he did, and that was that.

What followed was something between a burlesque panto and car crash TV.

AbFab’s tweaked muscle fibre prevented him from propelling upwards on serve, which would result in him foot faulting more times than his opponent hit aces – I personally counted 8. Did he take a step or two back behind the baseline before serving to correct for this ? What do you think? 

Between the foot-fault idiocy, Montanes’s utterly corrupt decision to go all “Berrer” on us, and AbFab’s ridonkulous thwacked winners he produced (sometimes on match point down) to go on and actually win this thing – all in a state of near-total immobilisation – I’m not sure there was much actual tennis left.

The rules are simple: A muscle cramp does not constitute an injury, but you can call on the trainer for a pulled muscle.

Perhaps all the ragging on AbFab and Louise Engzell was, therefore, misplaced, as not even he (let alone Engzell) can know which of the two (if any) is the cause of the pain; all the same, it does represent a grey area in the rules. And grey areas are open both to umpire misjudgement and exploitation.

Whatever. Third year running RG has come good in putting on an outrageously spectacular offering of one form or another. In this case of the comical rather than the seismic variety.

As an event it simply stands alone, just like AbFab does as a drama queen. No one even comes close. Not even JJ.

And if he ends Nole’s streak, it will be the single most spectacular act of cultural vandalism in the history of sport.

I can’t wait.

Roland Garros: “Ladies & Gentlemen - Light is Suspended due to Awesome Play”

Don’t ask me about the match.

I only saw the first half of it on a live stream, which switched over inexplicably, at the beginning of the third set, …to Football.

Not premier league football mind you, not even Bundesliga football – but by the looks of it, a Sunday league event that might follow a village fete held somewhere in the provincial outskirts of Hungary.

I’m told it was good tennis. Best of the week even.

Which, to be honest, the tournament needed it to be.

It’s a sorry, and somewhat sodden, state of affairs when the rains wash out nearly two days of play, and the closest you get to having your fire lit involves Muzzard outlasting Reeshie in a match ‘The Talanted One’ should have won, and a more literal take on Lights Out Tennis.

How is it possible for a match on Chatrier involving two top twenty players – one of whom is not simply a home favourite, but the hottest player on tour right now with recent wins over Henin and Venus – to not receive even a minutes worth of coverage?

Oh I’m miffed alright. And by the looks of it, I’m not the only one.

Nice to know that whatever differences may exist with those folks over the pond, our respective broadcasters remain equally clueless and out of touch with their fanbases on what exactly constitutes ‘Box Office’ Tennis.

I’ve no qualms with having to sit through Marin procrastinating over closing out another one of those five setters he’s so fond of.

I’ve long since made my peace with the tennis universe ceasing to exist for the four or five sets it seems to take Murray to close out his matches nowadays.

And you can’t fault them for electing to broadcast the defending champion’s last gasp (didn’t see it, didn’t regret not seeing it), a result that will land Kuzzie around #18 in the rankings in two weeks time. 2005, before you ask, was when she last “did time” there.

But it’s a little much, is it not, when you’re forced to sit through Dementcha taking the path of least conformance through to a blundering three set victory over Aleksandra Wozniak – knowing as you do, how you’re being actively denied the sumptuous treats on offer in Chatrier.

And let’s reserve that pose for when you’re able to elevate your play to the level it was at during Wimby last year, shall we?

I didn’t sit around, as it happened, electing to use the “down time” to stock up on bog roll and beverages.

I returned to discover that I’d missed out on the event’s greatest shindig of the week. Both women had seen three match points come and go before, at 7-7, light was suspended due to awesome play.

***

-- “Viewer, I bagelled him”

And if you can’t place that reference I’ll find you unwell-read (or well-unread).

Nice to know that whatever else might be happening, the Naderer age of blemish-free straight-sets wins in the early rounds of Slams is upon us once more.

Leister tried to make things happen, but seemed as much a part of the furniture as Roddick was in Oz 2007, and before he knew it had been bagelled and was watching Federer double fault at match point. Not quite blemish free then.

-- Wawa bundled out AbFab in straights in a match I’m guessing no one knew was happening and no one cared about enough to see even if they did.

AbFab seems to me to resemble the the type of provincial Italian Charlotte Bartlett might have been keen to protect Lucy Honeychurch from in ‘A Room with a View’ , or for that matter, the strawberry sucking Adonis type that did seduce Winona Ryder in ‘How to Make an American Quilt’.

In other words, exactly the kind of shallow journeyman you don’t expect to make many waves on tour.

I wanted to sock him one when he made such a song and dance of wanting to stop play that night (and it was night) against La Monf – but I seem to have come away with a new found respect for the way in which he then held serve.

Poetic justice served then on La Monf and the-powers-that-be? I think so.

Wawa to play Federer next – ideally it’ll take a little longer than it did in Madrid.

-- Albert Montanes played 9 clay court events coming into the FO.

I’ve got this image in my head of Ed Rooney (of Ferris Bueller Fame) complaining to Albert Montanes’ management team about “how he’s been seen skipping the tour in favour of lower-tier clay court events no less than nine times this season......nine times."

Someone mind doing the research and telling me which ones?

(Photos: Getty)

Day 5: Rain

Getty

Fabio Fognini shut down Gael Monfils 9-7 in the fifth and the French crowd actually applauded the Italian's effort. That was perhaps the biggest highlight of the day, given the drama that unfolded in the dark last night.

Andy Roddick lost his serve seven times and still won his match. That might not seem like a big deal, but I've never seen Roddick remain composed on any surface, much less his least favorite, when his opponent is returning his first serves with interest and breaking almost at will. If the American has ever been more patient, suffice it to say I've never noticed.

As for Blaz Kavcic. What a fighter. I overlooked all his gamesmanship today (imagine that) and just focused on his game. His return of serve is top notch. Yes, the conditions were slow and Roddick wasn't able to penetrate the court, but Kavcic got his racquet on more serves than I would have imagined and actually placed them well. If he ever developed a serve he might be a complete player.

To develop that complete game, he's got to get off the clay every once in a while. This is the time of year Americans are berated for their inability to "construct points" and slide on the slippery stuff, claims I just don't buy, especially since the evidence of things seen betrays such nonsense, but clay court specialists, exactly what the Kavcic is, can benefit from playing on faster surfaces so they're forced to at least consider developing a serve. Starting the point with a weak serve on clay is fine, but the Slovenian's serve would be eaten for lunch on hard courts or the lawns.

I wasn't able to watch much else today and with all the rain there wasn't much else to watch. If anyone saw any of the other matches, please give us an update in the comments.

Till tomorrow....

Roland Garros: If only you could see me now…If only you could see me at all.

Fognini: “You can't tell, but I'm trying to break the tension

by mooning you guys”

Pat Mac called it “One of the most amazing sights that I could barely see.”

Play was suspended at 5-5 in the fifth due to what was charitably termed “bad light”.

Gael had been insistent about wanting to play on at 4-4. Fabio was docked a point for holding up play after he spent nearly 10 mins insisting otherwise.

I love Gael, but say Fabio had held one of those two match points.

That is all.

(Photos: Getty)