Wimbledon 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

by Mad Professah, contributing writer 

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011. Last year's I correctly predicted the results of 1 of 4 men's quarterfinals right before I got on a plane to London to attend the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.  

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (6) Mardy Fish USA (10). Who would have thought that the last American player remaining in the draw at Wimbledon deep in the second week would be Mardy Fish? The American took out last year's Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych by exposing the 6'5" Czech mobility deficit with blistering groundstrokes into the corners and confident volleys following very big serves. Nadal was lucky to escape his meeting with Juan Martin del Potro in the 4th round but did not come away unscathed; apparently there is a foot or heel injury which is invisible to MRIs but which caused Nadal to take a 9-minute injury time-out at 6-all in the first set. The 2-time defending champion won that 1st set tie-break (despite being 0-3 down) and went on to win the match 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4. Mardy has only one won set against Nadal in 5 career meetings, but all of their matches were played before Fish transformed himself by losing 30 pounds and dedicating himself to fitness. The results have been extraordinary: he is now the top rated American male and will likely be so for the foreseeable future. Unless Nadal's injury plays a factor, I still don't see Fish advancing from his first Wimbledon quarterfinal to his first Wimbledon semifinal. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Andy Murray GBR (4) vs. Feliciano Lopez ESP. The only drama in this match will be who will be the first to mention the "controversy" that one of the player's parents finds the other player attractive. Feliciano Lopez is definitely an excellent grass-court player and is unquestionably one of the most handsome players on the tour. He is in his third career Wimbledon quarterfinal, which is the furthest he has ever been in any major.  In 2011 he has already achieved a number of firsts, including having a match point against Roger Federer and defeating Andy Roddick for the first time. That being said, Murray has the hopes of a nation on his shoulders and after a surprisingly good result at this year's French Open appears to be comfortable with pressure he faces to play his best tennis in SW19. Murray has yet to lose on grass this year. He knows he could have played much better in his 2010 Wimbledon semifinal against Nadal last year and wants another chance. I think he'll get it. PREDICTION: Murray.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (12) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). This match should be the best of the 2011 Men's Quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Tsonga is a very good grass-court player, playing (but losing) a very good final against Murrayat the Queen's Club. Tsonga actually has a win against Federer (on hard courts) and has only played the Swiss Maestro 5 times so the career head-to-head deficit is not overwhelming. However, the fact that he will be playing Living History, the man who is in his 29th(!) consecutive major quarterfinal  and is trying to win this tournament for a record-tying 7th time must be daunting. Interestingly, since Tsonga had to play Grigor "Baby Fed" Dimitrov earlier in the tournament he may feel well-prepared to handle the real Federer on the big stage this time. Federer was able to dismiss Mikhail Youzhny in four sets after inexplicably dropping the first set tie-break after holding a 4-2 lead at the change over but he really didn't look comfortable to me despite the 6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-3 scoreline. Youzhny is a crafty veteran but he does not possess the firepower to really give Federer difficulties at crucial moments. Tsonga does. That being said Federer is aiming for his 27th major semifinal and 22nd major final. I believe that he will reach both. PREDICTION: Federer. 

Bernard Tomic AUS  vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (2). For the first time in 25 years one of the men's quarterfinalists is an 18-year-old, Bernard Tomic. Australians, especially his father, have been talking up Tomic's talent for years so it is impressive the youngster has matched a feat last achieve by Boris Becker. But there the similarities end. Tomic's game is like Murray 2.0 when he was 18: lots of different spins, excellent movement, full of guile and almost zero aggression.  It is not an attractive picture. Djokovic, despite only losing one match (out of 46 played!) all year long, has progressed through the draw like a ninja, silently dispatching his opponents by gliding around the court, seeming to do very little only to see the vanquished drop to the ground, defeated. He had a slight hiccup against a game Marcos Baghdatis, but one never really believed that the World's #2 was in any danger of losing. I have a very similar feeling about this match. Most likely for the second major in a row, the Top 4 players will reach the semifinals.   PREDICTION: Djokovic. 

RafaNole, Part XXV

The most competitive rivalry in men's tennis. Overshadowed by Fedal (for good reasons), Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic is the most competitive rivalry in men's tennis. They've played the other more times than any two active players, and I suspect if both remain healthy throughout the year, they'll face each other in many more finals. While they've so far only contested one Slam final at last year's US Open, which Rafa won in four sets to complete the Career Slam, many of their encounters have been brutal battles, despite some of the straight-set scorelines, the ultimate winner in question till the bitter end. Who can forget that spectacular 2009 Madrid semifinal that Rafa won 7-6(9) in the third? Djoke held 4 match points, if memory serves, and Rafa denied them all. That was easily the best best-of-three match that year. Shortly thereafter, Rafa left the tour to heal his knees and Djoke's tennis teetered between brilliant and woeful, losing early in Paris as well as his next two finals.



A fortnight ago, against Rafa in the Indian Wells final, Djoke rallied from a set down to earn his second Masters shield in the desert and keep his 2011 record unblemished. Today, the rematch is on. Djoke knows how to win here; he took the title in 2007. If Rafa has turned his first serve around, as he did when facing 0-40 early in the final set of his quarterfinal against Tomas Berdych, I suspect he'll put a stop to the Serbian steamroller. The World No. 2's form has dipped over his last few matches while Rafa's has risen. The World No. 1 has never won in Miami so I believe he'll be extra motivated to finally get to the winner's circle, even if it takes three sets.

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Watch the Sony Ericsson Open men's final live on CBS at 1:oo EDT

Miami: The strange, intangible, utterly befuddling notion of ‘Loyalty’

Nadal d. Berdych 6-2, 3-6, 6-3

My favourite Rafa pic until further notice.

It’s been a long time since I’ve rooted for Rafa so strongly. If anything I’m more interested in what Berd can make of the talent he only now seems to realise he has. But when you’re watching a match with players you’re largely uninvested in, something strange often happens.

Ever so gently, almost without you knowing it, the forces of loyalty begin to take shape, coiling themselves surreptitiously around you, manipulating your emotions and senses on almost every level.

How this happens remains largely a mystery - don’t get taken in by anyone that claims to know how it works. What is indisputable, is that by the end of it you’re rooting for one of the two players like your life depended on it.

That’s where I was early on in the final set.

Rafa started off well. Very well. Berd wasn’t playing badly but simply wasn’t allowed to settle. Then in set two, almost as inexplicably as Petko vs Pova at the same position, it all started to go horribly awry.



A neck/shoulder problem turned out (apparently) to be at the bottom of it – with Rafa receiving treatment during several of the subsequent changeovers.

My own feeling (he says authoritatively) is that the injury (assuming we can call it that) was less of a problem than Rafa’s own reaction to it – an electrifying anxiety that seemed to be born as much of appreciating the very real threat posed by Berd, as in being unable (perhaps by the shoulder) to respond in the way he would have liked.

In so far as the neck/shoulder was a problem at all, it it seemed to be in the way it elicited that crazy crippling anxiety in him – it all but caused him to seize up, in a manner not dissimilar to the way Petko did vs Pova.

All very “chicken and egg”, all remarkably presumptuous of me I know, but there it is.

However wavering and indeterminate my loyalty was at this point, what happened at the beginning of the third set decided firmly in Rafa’s favour: down 0-40 on his serve, and lacking all confidence in a way I’ve not seen in over a year, he pulled out three of the biggest serves you might ever see – it was all rather reminiscent of the USO last year (when Rafas newly unveiled serve was arguably the story of the event), except that this time it was arguably his opponent that had the upper hand, and it was Rafa the one struggling with confidence (and, as it seems, injury).

And that, further underscoring everything we’ve seen from Pova this week, is what Champions do.




Berd looked befuddled and bruised. He continued, to his credit, to play as well as he had been to this point (arguably as well as during his best moments at Wimbledon last year), but the little burst of energy and belief that induced in Rafa proved to be all that was required to get the break and close it out 6-2, 3-6, 6-3  - all, interestingly, with that same jarring blend of big serving and dicey, sub-par groundies.

There’s not, frankly, more than about 3 (or at most 4) players – male or female – that could have turned the match around playing as atrociously as Rafa was yesterday or Pova the day before.

We’ve still a few matches to go, but if there’s a theme emerging in Miami, it’s one of ‘true grit’ – which, contrary to prevailing, overwhelmingly hormonal opinion, only really comes into its own when the truly great one is stripped of precisely those dazzling assets that actually only appear to make them great.

Australian Open 2011 Men's Semifinals Preview

BY MAD PROFESSAH

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Australian Open men's semifinals. I had previously correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) David Ferrer ESP (7) vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). Everyone expected a Murray-Nadal semifinal, and many many tennis fans were salivating at the prospect of seeing a match of the same caliber as their superlative ATP World Tour Championships semifinal in London. Murray did his piece first, by dispatching the extremely talented Aleksandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine who had eliminated Robin Soderling and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 5-set matches by coming from behind to win those contests. Dolgopolov plays in an unorthodox fashion, with quick, whip-like strokes, but this generates tremendous (and surprising) power on both wings; he also has a truly unusual serve which allows him to get several free points, even from someone as good at returning serve as Andy Murray.

In the first set the younger player had 12 aces to Murray's two and was hitting winners into both corners of the court. Essentially, he was "out-Murraying" Murray. Unfortunately for Dolgopolov his quirky style is sometimes combined with an almost laissez-faire approach to finishing a point which resulted in errors instead of winners on balls that MadProfessah could have put away. These lapses enabled Murray to eke out the first set 7-5 (after blowing a 4-1 lead). The second set featured tremendous serving from Murray, losing only two points on his serve for a 6-3 win. The third set Murray should have closed out the match, but Dogopolov was able to climb back to win the 3rd in a tiebreaker 7-3 after horrendous play by Murray in the decider. The final set was never much in doubt with Murray winning the first fourteen points and the Dogopolov errors accumulating until he was at a total of 77 for the match compared to a showy 57 winners. Murray had a more sedate 33 winners and 34 errors and won the final set 6-3.

The drama of the Murray-Dolgopolov quarterfinal was quickly eclipsed when the two Spaniards took the court. After a quick service hold by Ferrer to start the match, Nadal's first service game lasted 17 minutes and consisted of 22 points with 7 deuces. Ferrer was playing very aggressively, especially with his forehand and service return; he was running down shots which would have been winners against almost anyone else. Eventually Ferrer was able to get the break, which he then immediately gave back through strong play by Nadal. On the changeover it became clear something was very wrong with Nadal, and he left the court to take an injury time out and receive treatment. It looked very much like he would retire at various points in the first set after that. Amazingly he had retired in a match played exactly a year before, in the men's quarterfinal of 2010 against Murray, also played on Australia Day, January 26. However, Nadal soldiered on and Ferrer continued his style of aggressive play, taking advantage of Nadal's clearly limited movement to his forehand side (Nadal's left thigh was heavily strapped) and maintained his composure to complete the stunning 6-4 6-2 6-3 straight sets win over the defending Roland Garros, Wimbledon and US Open champion.

Rafa's quest to be the first man in a generation (or two) to simultaneously hold all 4 major titles was over. The reason I have spent so much time reviewing the quarterfinal matches instead of previewing the semifinal match is because there is not much to say. Head-to-head Ferrer and Murray have met 5 times, (never in a Grand Slam) with Murray winning all their hard court matches relatively easily and Ferrer winning the clay court matches. Murray was able to reach the final last year, and he is playing even better one year later. Ferrer is also playing better, but, barring an injury, the result of their next hard court match will not be any different from the other three they have played before. PREDICTION: Murray in 4 sets.

Roger Federer SUI (2). vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This semifinal match-up is a reprise of the four celebrated grand slam semifinals these two have competed: the 2010 US Open semifinal won by Djokovic after saving two match points in the 5th set; the 2009 US Open semifinal won by Federer which featured the amazing tweener shot by the Swiss great on the penultimate point of the match; the 2008 US Open semifinal won in straight sets by Federer despite trailing in the first two; and the 2008 Australian Open semifinal won by Djokovic on his way to winning his first major title. So, despite Federer's impressive 13-6 head-to-head edge overall, the two have actually split the four hard-court major semifinals they have played in their careers. Bizarrely, they have never played at Wimbledon or at Roland Garros. It should be noted that Federer has won the last three times they have played, and has apparently taken energy from his defeat in New York last year. Djokovic is also playing inspired tennis, having achieved one of his career goals by anchoring his country to a Davis Cup title (something Federer has not done despite having someone as talented as Stan Wawrinka on his team). Of the four players left remaining in the tournament, Djokovic and Murray have both only dropped one tie-break set each. Djokovic in particular has looked the most impressive, taking out the #6 (Tomas Berdych), #14(Nicolas Almagro) and #29 seeds. The highest seed that Federer has had to face was Wawrinka at #19 but Gilles Simon in the first round was playing like a Top 10 player when he stretched the World #2 to 5 sets. To determine my pick, I'm going to try an do some math. There are three possibilities, which I will assume are equally likely to occur (3-set, 4-set and 5-set match with 33% probabilities). If only 3 sets of tennis are played I give Federer a 25-8 edge. In a 4-set match I give Djokovic a 17-16 edge. In a 5-set match I give Djokovic a 25-8 edge. So overall, Djokovic has a 50-49 edge. I split the last point equally and this gets Djokovic slightly ahead to reach his second Australian Open final, and second consecutive major final. PREDICTION: Djokovic (has a 50.5% chance to win).

Australian Open 2011 Men's Quarterfinal Preview

BY MAD PROFESSAH


Reuters

From top row left to right: Rafael Nadal of Spain, Roger Federer of Switzerland, Novak Djokovic of Serbia, Andy Murray of Britain. From bottom row left to right: Tomas Berdych of the Czech Republic, David Ferrer of Spain, Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland and Alexandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine.

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Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 Australian Open.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) vs. Milos Raonic CAN David Ferrer ESP (7). I thought that the 6'6" 2010 Australian Open semifinalist from Croatia would have followed up on his 5-set win over John Isner with a better showing against Rafael Nadal. However, the World No. 1 came out with a strong game plan since Cilic had beaten him in their one meeting in October 2009 and dismantled the Croatian in straight sets 6-2 6-4 6-3. David Ferrer has been called the best service returner in the world by both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and he demonstrated that ability against the huge serving 20-year-old, 6-foot-5-inch Canadian. Ferrer is only 5'9" but has optimized the amount of tennis success a male player can extract from such a slight frame. He is also one of the fittest players on tour and very speedy. The problem is, everything he can do, Nadal can do better, and Nadal is a lefty. Head-to-head the two have played 14 times with the more celebrated Spaniard winning all but 3 of their meetings. Ferrer does have a notable win over Nadal in the 2007 US Open quarterfinals, but unfortunately he will be playing the vastly improved 2011 version. The difference will be very clear. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 sets.

Robin Soderling SWE (4) Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). The only unseeded player in the final 8 is the 22-year-old counterpuncher from Ukraine. From the way World No. 4 Robin Soderling was dismissing his opponents and hitting the ball in first three rounds I had expected him to have few problems getting past Dolgopolov but Soderling has never done well at the Australian Open and also doesn't like to play in windy conditions. That being said, the biggest problem he had on court was not the weather but the phenomenal defense and gigantic serving of the Ukrainian. Soderling was not playing his best tennis and ran into an opponent who could take advantage of this opportunity to reach his first major quarterfinal. Andy Murray has been playing some of the sharpest tennis of any of the legitimate contenders. He demolished crafty lefty Jurgen Melzer and has yet to lose more than 3 games in a set through four rounds! Melzer at No. 11 and Guillermo Garcia Lopez at No. 32 are the only seeded players the Brit has faced on his way to an inevitable showdown with World No. 1 Rafael Nadal in the semifinals, whom he was on track to dismiss in the quarterfinals last year when Nadal retired. Of course the Spaniard went on to win every other Grand Slam for the rest of 2010, but I think that Murray does not fear Nadal on a hard-court. Will we see a reprise of the 2010 Australian Open final between Murray and Federer or a reprise of the 2009 Australian Open final between Nadal and Federer or something else? Only time will tell. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets.

Tomas Berdych CZE (6) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This should be the best battle of the quarterfinal round, a showdown between the 2010 Wimbledon finalist and the 2010 US Open finalist. Djokovic has won this title before (over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008) although the Frenchman was able to get revenge last year in this round. Head-to-head Berdych has only beaten Djokovic once, but it was a blowout in the 2010 Wimbledon semifinals. Since then, the Serbian has had multiple breakthroughs, including an epic 2010 US Open semifinal win over Roger Federer and anchoring his country to their first ever Davis Cup title. Berdych played near-perfect tennis in a tremendous 3-set dismissal of Fernando Verdasco in the 4th round (featuring a final set where the Czech was crushing the ball and had either 1 or 2 unforced errors). If Berdych plays like that, even a prodigiously talented ball-striker and mellifluously mobile player as Djokovic will have trouble surviving the onslaught. Another factor is that Djokovic's results are often sensitive to the weather conditions; if this match is played during the day then even a 3-set win will be unlikely for the Serb. PREDICTION: Djokovic in 3 sets or Berdych in 4 or 5 sets.

Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (19) vs. Roger Federer SUI (2). These two are best friends and share a lot in common: they come from the same country, are both young fathers and are both undefeated in 2011 so far. Together they won the Gold medal in men's doubles at the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Head-to-head the two have played 7 times, with Wawrinka winning once on clay. They have only played once in a grand slam, with Federer winning that as well. Wawrinka has come up with some good upsets in the last two Slams (defeating Andy Roddick and Gael Monfils in this tournament and Andy Murray and Sam Querrey in the 2010 US Open) but I doubt that storyline will continue with the defending champion. This match should feature some exquisite one-handed backhands: my favorite shot! PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

Video: Berdych Visits Melbourne Zoo

Best (Men's) Tennis Matches of 2010

Here are my picks for the "best" (or most memorable) tennis matches by men in 2010. These are basically the matches that had the most impact on me while they were occurring, feature some of the best play, had the most impact on the rest of the tennis world or are matches that I would most likely to watch again in the future. You can see my previous lists: Best Men's Tennis Matches of 2009 and Best Men's Tennis Matches of 2006. (There were no men's lists in 2007 or 2008.) I also have posted the Best Women's Tennis Matches of 2010.

1. J. Isner USA d. N. Mahut FRA, 6-4 3-6 6-7(7) 7-6(3) 70-68, Wimbledon 1st Round, London.

A match for the ages. A tennis match that transcends tennis, and possibly sport itself. Two relatively unheralded players played a match which lasted 11 hours and 5 minutes, by far the longest match ever. The final set itself is a marvel, shattering the record for the longest match--in terms of time (8 hours,11 minutes) and number of games (138) played. The list of records broken is a litany of exceptionalism which is unlikely ever to be matched. When the rest of the tennis of 2010 is long-forgotten Isner-Mahut will still be referred to. What was most remarkable that despite playing so long, there was still brilliant tennis for vast portions of the match. This was truly an example of the cliche where it is sad that in every game there has to be a winner.

2.  R. Nadal ESP d. A. Murray GBR, 7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(6), ATP World Tour Finals semifinal, London.

The penultimate match of the 2010 season was one of the most exciting, well-played matches of the year. Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray had met three times before in 2010, with the Briton leading 2-1. However, this semifinal match at the Year-Ending Championships was being held before a British crowd which was considered to be a disadvantage for Murray. Many people do not like Murray's game, feeling that he plays too defensively given the talent, power and mobility he possesses (Gael Monfils suffers from similar complaints), but in this match Murray confounded his critics by being as aggressive as I have ever seen him play. The match was probably decided in the first set. There, both players  played well, with Murray serving exceedingly well but after his serve failed him in the tiebreaker Nadal was able to tuck the set away on his first and only set point. In the second set, things were pretty even until Nadal went through a very bad patch at 3-all and basically donated the second set to Murray. In the third set Nadal got an early break which he was able to nurse into a 5-3 lead. Murray was able to hold serve and when Nadal served for the match at 5-4 he was broken despite holding a match point. In the inevitable tiebreak Murray continued his aggressive play but was rewarded with errors instead of winners. He can take heart that he at least went down slugging away and if he can apply this mentality to future matchups with his higher ranked rivals the results may be different.

3.  N. Djokovic SRB d. R. Federer SUI, 5-7 6-1 5-7 6-2 7-5, U.S. Open semifinal, New York.

The greatest Grand Slam match played this year was the second men's semifinal at Super Saturday at the U.S. Open in New York. For the fourth year in a row Roger Federer faced Novak Djokovic at the last major of the year, having beaten him the first three times in one final and two semifinals. This time, history seemed prepared to repeat itself when Federer earned double match point at 15-40, 4-5 in the final set. The number of times Federer had lost a grand slam match after holding a match point in his career can be counted on one hand (without using all of the fingers). However, the young Serb was able to be very aggressive on these match points and after getting past that near-death experience was able to use the mental momentum gained to immediately break Federer in the very next service game and serve out the win. The match featured long streaks of very high-quality tennis from both sides, with both players displaying impeccable defense and offense. After winning 5 U.S. Opens in a row, Federer has now lost in the last two to younger challengers. Is this a sign of things to come? Only time will tell.

4.  R. Federer SUI d. A. Murray GBR, 6-3 6-4 7-6(11), Australian Open final, Melbourne.

The highest quality grand slam final of the year featured yet another historic performance by Roger Federer as he was able to beat a player who has a career head-to-head edge against him in straight sets. Murray did not play badly, Federer was simply on fire for exactly the optimal time which allowed him to win each set. The third set in particular Federer should have lost but he was able to finally earn the break back and set up one of the classic tie-breaks of all time--a 24-point thriller that ended with Federer winning the match and his record 16th grand slam singles title.

5.  G. Monfils FRA d. R. Federer SUI, 7-6(7) 6-7(1) 7-6(4), Paris ATP Masters semifinal, Paris. 

Gael Monfils is a 6' 4", 180 pound Frenchman of African descent with size 15 feet who has long been predicted to do great things in tennis. He is one of the most dynamic players on tour and easily one of the fleetest of foot. He often responds well to a supportive crowd and has had some of his best results in front of Parisian crowds. Federer had never lost to Monfils and was probably not worried when he somehow lost the first set in a close tie-break. However, even Federer must have been surprised by the Frenchman's tenacity and will-to-win despite being down 4-1 in the 3rd set. Somehow, Monfils was able to save (count 'em) five match points at 4-5 through tremendous defense (his mighty serve basically deserted him on match points down so Monfils had to win those points the hard way). This was the fourth example of a match in 2010 where Federer had a match point and went on to lose the match (l. Djokovic US Open semifinals, l. Berdych Miami Masters 4th Round, l. Baghdatis Indian Wells 3rd Round, l. Monfils Paris Masters semifinals). Hopefully, Federer's new coach Paul Annacone will try to work on raising the level of his charge's aggression on big points (his often-atrocious break-point conversion rate should be another focus of improvement for the Swiss great) and we look forward to seeing the results in 2011. For Monfils, this was an amazing result which hopefully will spur him on to greater results next year and beyond.

6.  R. Nadal ESP d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-2, U.S. Open final, New York.

 After the fireworks of the men's semifinal between Federer and Djokovic, this final was something of an afterthought, especially since  for the third year in a row it was played on Monday instead of Sunday due to inclement weather (get a roof already, New York!). The tennis quality was reasonably high but Nadal secured his inevitable date with destiny by achieving the career grand slam at the tender age of 24 years old, just 15 months after his great rival had achieved the same feat in Paris. Nadal and Federer both have claims to be the greatest of all time, with Nadal at 9 majors to Federer's 16 but is 5 years younger (and further along at comparable ages). The GOAT question will not be decided until after both men have retired, but without doubt this match was a seminal moment in tennis history, one to be remembered for a long time as Nadal joined the small select group of career grand slam holders.

7.  R. Federer SUI d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-3 3-6 6-1, ATP World Tour Finals final, London.

 Any match between Federer and Nadal is a marquee event, but this contest, following the best match of the year between top players (Nadal-Murray semifinal) was the culmination of the season in which Nadal won 3 consecutive grand slam tournaments. With Nadal sporting a gaudy 14-7 career head-to-head record against Federer some people thought he would cement his dominance with a win here. They were incorrect, however, because on hard courts the two greats are more evenly matched, with a very slight edge to Federer. The actual tennis was high quality, but the sets were somewhat lopsided in score. Even small lapses can be converted into 6-3 sets and a large lapse results in a 6-1 blowout between these two rivals who know each other's games so well. In the end Federer was better on the day and postponed the discussion of which of the two men will be at the top of the heap in history's final estimation.

8.  R. Soderling SWE d. R. Federer SUI, 3-6 6-3 7-5 6-4, French Open quarterfinal, Paris.

One year after engineering the upset of the decade by handing 4-time defending champion Nadal his sole defeat (ever!) at Roland Garros, the tall, strong Robin Soderling repeated the effort by ending Federer's incredible streak of grand slam semifinals at 23 with a 4-set win over the defending champion. History was repeated again a few days later, when, after reaching the French Open final, Soderling lost in a surprisingly non-competitive fashion. However, this match, like last year's defeat of the defending champion will be long remembered by tennis fans. It should be noted that Federer hasn't forgotten either, and hasn't lost to the Swede since (but Nadal has).

9.  T. Berdych CZE d. R. Federer, 4-6 6-3 6-1 6-4, Wimbledon quarterfinal, London.

A few weeks after losing his hold on the #1 ranking and his famous semifinal streak, Federer had his dominance on grass ripped from his grasp as Tomas Berdych showed that his inaugural win over the Swiss player in Miami was not a fluke but a harbinger. The 6' 5", 200 pound Czech simply played a near-perfect match on Federer's home turf of Wimbledon's Centre Court, dismissing the defending champion in 4 crisp sets. Although Berdych was able to follow up his win with a victory over Novak Djokovic in the semifinal, he was unable to compete effectively against Nadal in the final, succumbing in straight sets to the Spaniard while I watched in the stands. Unsuccessfully defending his title in two consecutive grand slams, failing to reach the semifinals twice in a row must have been a dreadful blow to Federer, but he can seek solace in his quarterfinal streak, which now stands at 26 and counting.

10 F. Verdasco ESP d. D. Ferrer ESP, 5-7 6-7(8) 6-3 6-3 7-6(4), U.S. Open 4th Round, New York.

The only other match on this list besides the Isner-Mahut classic which does not feature a grand slam champion was this all-Spaniard showdown between two of the fittest (and best-looking) players on the men's tour in the 4th round of the 2010 US Open. It also happens to feature one of the most amazing match points in the history of Open tennis. It should be noted that this fifth-set tiebreak occurred after nearly 4 1/2 hours of grinding, extended-rally play, after Verdasco had already been down two(!) breaks in the deciding set and fought back to even the match. What happens on match point deserves no words, just your admiration:

Absolutely amazing!

HONORABLE MENTIONS

R. Soderling SWE d. T. Berdych CZE, 6-3 6-3 3-6 5-7 6-3, French Open semifinal, Paris.

A. Murray GBR d. R. Nadal ESP, 6-3 7-6(2) 3-0 ret., Australian Open quarterfinal, Melbourne.

R. Soderling SWE d. M. Llodra FRA, 6-7(0) 7-5 7-6(6), ATP Paris Masters semifinal, Paris.

A. Murray GBR d. R. Federer SUI, 7-5 7-5, Canadian ATP Masters final, Toronto, Canada.

A. Murray GBR d. R. Federer SUI, 6-3 6-2, Shanghai ATP Masters final, Shanghai, China.

R. Nadal ESP d. T. Berdych CZE, 6-3 7-5 6-4, Wimbledon final, London.

R. Federer SUI d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-4 3-6 6-1, Swiss Indoors final, Basel, Switzerland.

R. Nadal ESP d. R. Soderling SWE, 6-3 7-5 6-4, French Open final, Paris.

R. Nadal ESP d. A. Murray, 6-4 7-6(6) 6-4, Wimbledon semifinal, London.

Y-H. Lu TPE d. A. Roddick USA, 4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 9-7, Wimbledon 4th Round, London.

T. Berdych CZE d. R. Federer SUI, 6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(6), Miami ATP Masters 4th Round, Miami.

R. Federer SUI d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-1 6-4, ATP World Tour Finals semifinal, London.

S. Wawrinka SUI d. A. Murray GBR, 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-3 6-3, U.S. Open 3rd Round, New York.

J. Melzer AUT d. N. Djokovic SRB, 6-4 3-6 2-6 6-2 7-6(3), French Open quarterfinal, New York.

J-M. Del Potro ARG d. J. Blake USA, 6-4 6-7(3) 5-7 6-3 10-8, Australian Open 2nd Round, Melbourne.

M. Cilic CRO d. J-M Del Potro ARG, 5-7 6-4 5-7 7-5 6-3, Australian Open 4th Round, Melbourne.

L. Hewitt AUS d. R. Federer SUI, 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4, Gerry Weber Open final, Halle, Germany.

J-W. Tsong

London WTF: Tron - Fuschia Edition

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lest we doubt the essential rectitude of a winner?

 

It seems 5 weeks out of the game really do show at this level.

 

For the best part of the first set Rafa could find nothing. And I mean squat. Nothing other than a forehand that was fully flatulent and a serve that was about as souped-up as the slosh you get served in an M25 service station.

 

Ever since before the event began Ferru, Berd and ARod have been cast as everyone’s favourite whipping boys.

 

Difficult to argue in Ferrus case that there’s not a very real danger of him being comprehensively outclassed – particularly with the group he’s been drawn in.

 

 

 

And after yesterdays pitiful performance one wonders what, if anything, will extricate Berd from the pooey pigswill he’s wallowing in right now.

 

But to write off anyone at this event is to effectively ignore the eccentricities of the three set Round Robin format.

 

The beauty of this format is that Ferru can still, in principle, qualify by defeating Sod tonight (he’s already beaten him twice on hard this year) and somehow wangling a three set win over Muzz (not impossible).

 

But ARod as the butt of your worst ATP jokes? Really?

 

 

Drawing Rafa in his opening match was always going to have been his best chance of beating him – and it’s no fluke he came so close.

 

He obviously came out primed to shorten the points and smother the net at every available opportunity – that Rafa won around 80% of rallies longer than 8 shots confirms the moral rectitude of this approach.

 

But it was his near-flawless execution of that strategy that underlines how daft I think those anti-predictions really are.

 

He clearly benefited from that deliriously poor start from Rafa, but if it hadn’t been for an especially acute-angled pass from Rafa during that second set tie break, one I’m not fully convinced he meant to strike so sweetly, Roddick might just have been looking at a straight sets win.

 

As it stands, he’ll now have to get through Novak (somewhat likely) and Berd (wholly likely) to stand a chance of qualifying – uncertain yes, unlikely no.

World Tour Finals 2010 Day 1 Open Thread

by Craig Hickman


Reuters

Tennis players (L-R) Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, Robin Söderling, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal, Andy Roddick, Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer are pictured standing together with British Prime Minister David Cameron (4th L) outside 10 Downing Street in London, November 18, 2010.

::

The final ATP event of yet another long and grueling year is upon us. Because I haven't seen enough tennis in the latter half of the season, I can make no predictions whatsoever.

Savannah's World has an excellent and artistic preview posted. Those interspersed head shots are lovely.

Tell us what you think about the draw and who you believe will prevail.

Enjoy tennis.

London WTF: Daveed Cameron unveils a few last minute additions to the coalition.

 

 

 

 

It hasn’t been a good month for David Cameron.

 

 

First there were the student riots  that saw the near-sacking of Tory HQ (a couple of broken window panes) and a fire extinguisher being hurled off its roof that only narrowly missed police.

 

Since then, floods, banking bailouts not to mention the continuing fallout from the the deeply unpopular “austerity” measures – a word that almost sounds like a period themed wallpaper.

 

He was even taken to task for employing a personal photographer on the public payroll – what is a man to do?

 

1. Announce a royal wedding.

 

The scarcely concealed theory being that flooding the public sensibilities with talk of “Kate and Will” & “Will and Kate” will gently assuage the grim public mood so ostensibly damaged by those nasty public cuts.

 

Who has time to worry about your home being repossessed when you might be debating Kate’s bridal wear and the rights and wrongs of Wills presenting her with Diana’s ring? 

 

Or why she hasn’t ever held a proper job (it would seem, disturbingly, that some of us believe privilege has no part to play now that the royals sometimes marry outside of a carefully screened courtly set).

 

Complete the set piece by flooding the airwaves with a series of period romps showing the gentry in a lovingly eccentric and well-meaning light and the working class in a sufficiently reverential one. Sit back and let it simmer.

 

And if that doesn’t work…

 

2. Hobnob with tennis elite inside Downing St.

 

To be fair to him Cameron has actually played tennis before. Though there's no reason to suppose he was any better than Tony Blair who almost had a panic attack before going out for a charity knockabout with Pat Cash & Illi Nastase

 

 

Nice one Ferru. A gauche, awkward Viking has been made to feel even more socially inept and about *this* small.

 

All in all, Sod’s win in Paris has meant I haven’t very strong views about whom I’d like to see win. They all seem to make a compelling case.

 

 

Group A

 

Rafael Nadal.

 

Simply coz, other than this title, he really has won it all (in some cases several times over). Think Fed and RG 2009.

 

Novak Djokovic

 

Simply coz it’d be nice if the revival we saw at Flushing actually turned out to be one, rather than one of the many false starts we’ve seen since winning Indian Wells 2008 – the last title he won playing the way I like him to. Seems fitting for him to win at least something this year – and he has a chance to do that not just here, but to also clean up at Davis Cup and at Aus next year (hat tip @DavidLawTennis). That would be something.

 

 

 

Tomas Berdych

 

Simply coz he ‘s wallowing in doodoo at the moment and I don’t want him to go the way of Marin – for that way lies madness.

 

 

 

Andy Roddick

 

Simply coz this is the 8th time he’s qualified(!) yet has somehow never made it beyond the semis. And because he has a better chance here than at another Slam. And because Elena’s retirement has made me especially protective towards anyone associated with tennis circa 2004-2006. And because I’m still not up to talking about that yet.

 

 

Group B

Roger Federer.

 

Simply coz those blasted 5 unconverted MPs threaten to define what I still maintain was a better ‘one-Slam’ year than 2008. (Side note: how many “declining” players can cite having a ‘one-Slam year’ as an exception to the norm?)

 

 

 

Andy Murray

 

Simply coz having comprehensively scattered his seed on the Masters-1000 scene (read 6 Masters and 0 Slams), there’s a certain justifiable urgency surrounding the need to “step it up”. Winning here isn’t quite a Slam. It is, however, the next best thing – and it’s at home, and it wouldn’t do either him or his street cred any harm. Or, for that matter, David Cameron’s.

 

 

 

Robin Soderling

 

Simply coz “Simply coz” alright?….though I do so wish he hadn’t been drawn with Dave Ferrer.

 

Daveed Ferrer

 

Simply coz he tries so hard. Always.

 

P.S No one seems to have noticed that for the first time in six years Kolya is not part of the draw. Please tell me some one out there cares.

Shanghai: So What Have We Learnt, Gentlemen?

 

1) Just what is Rafa so pumped about?

 

Being Rafa of course. Silly question.

 

(Reuters)

 

If the Asian Swing really is a “swing”, then Rafa’s the kid that always takes things too far by pushing your 7 year-old self so high up, you end up crying.

 

I don’t suppose I’ll ever completely understand why playing these piddly events means so much to a guy that’s just written history. But then isn’t that exactly what Rafa’s all about? Barely stopping short of non-metaphorical cartwheels after beating a qualifier in round two of an ATP 500 event? Don’t ever change.

 

I might be wrong about this, but it’s almost as though he’s relishing the feeling of being able to play with the total abandon that must arise from being, a) injury free and b) able, therefore, to deliver his level best on a surface not traditionally considered “his bag”.

 

What all this means is that he’s got “nothing to lose” in the truest sense of the phrase: not in the way, say, Oscar Hernandez might have “nothing to lose” when he takes to court against Fed; not even in terms of ranking points (virtually none to defend until next year).

 

Perhaps this might be the best chance his career ever offers him of winning the WTF - the one title that eludes him. God knows what will happen if he wins in Aus.

 

Needless to say, this is both hugely problematic and profoundly dispiriting news for the rest of the tour.

 

I’d be be doing cartwheels too.

 

2) How good is Djoko’s Calculus?

 

If tennis was A-Level Maths, then  Djoko just went through a point of inflexion at Flushing.

 

 (getty)

 

I don’t think for a minute that he’ll repeat those highs right away, but I really don’t want to believe that was just a one off .

 

Personally I think it’s perfectly natural to have a slight dip in trajectory after such a defining performance before readjusting to a renewed sense of your self worth.

 

But he does SO need a good showing here: he’s got all those points to defend in Paris.

 

3) How much can ‘The Cone’ help Fed to “get it together”? “Get what together”, exactly?

 

In some ways, Fed’s in the same kind of “what now” transition Djoko is. The difference being that whilst Djoko’s Flushing performance was a step up from the way he’d been playing of late, Fed’s is more business as usual - which means that he’s mostly kept it together and (perhaps more importantly) hasn’t had any real WTF results (Baggy/IW perhaps the oddest loss, and yet take a look at what he had to say).

 

 (Reuters)

 

That gusto totalling of Sod in the gustiest conditions we’ve seen this year was as good as anything we’ve seen since the final of Melbourne (if not better given the wind).

 

I realise this will go down as one of his two worst Slam years since 2003, but it’s worth noting that it required three career-defining performances from top ranked players to bring that about – not something he’ll want to see repeated, but not nearly the catastrophe suggested by the column space devoted to doom-mongery.

 

Worth also mentioning that whilst I think input from the Cone will be invaluable over the coming months, I stand by my original assertion that his role will be (and should be) more about quietly nudging Fed back into reoccupying that mental space that wins Slams - renewing that sense of confidence that he can, indeed, beat everyone, dominate even the way he says he can (telling, that he chose  “dominate anyone” over “everyone” – not even he would claim to be able to dominate the way he did in 06-07).

 

Less important will be the need to “come to the net”, “to mix things up”, or any one of the manifold tired technical enhancements being touted as this years “silver bullet” solution to his “problems” (if you can call them that).

 

The tour moves on, players develop new weapons, so it is, of course, critical to keep your finger on the pulse and to understand how best to refashion a gameplan to respond to that.

 

It’s one thing to say that “Rafa has a beefier serve now, so I need to be ready for that”.

 

Or that “Djoko is clearly returning more fearlessly from the back of the court - I definitely ought to be prepared for that”.

 

Or that “Muzz is undergoing something of a career-tailspin, in a bit of a funk right now, so maybe I can bully him a little and profit from that”.

And yet, I can’t help feeling that a player like Fed, or indeed Rafa is less about mere technicalities, than they are about their formidable presence and belief: the belief that they really are, naturally, a superior order of being on the tennis court – in, of course, the most inoffensive way imaginable.

 

4) Where’d it all go wrong for Muzz?

 

*Grits teeth*

 

I want to say good things - hopeful things. It’s just that they don’t seem to accord with the narrative right now.

 

 (getty)

 

It wasn’t so much that he went out to Wawa at Flushing – it was the miserable, vacuous way in which he did. And there weren’t even any answers forthcoming from the post-mortem.

 

I didn’t follow Beijing very much but from what I gather, things weren’t considerably different against Ljuby.

 

Can you do us all a favour and appoint a coach already? A Coach-shaped cut out will suffice until you find a real one – something, anything to direct all all those death stares and verbal refuse at.

 

For one thing, I really don’t think he’s the “going it alone” type.

 

What was perhaps most concerning about the Flushing loss was the lack of any real diagnostics in it’s aftermath – Muzz was at a loss to explain his lack of energy and even went on to say he “might never win a Slam”.

 

Nothing hugely irresponsible about that – even the top players are more likely not to win a Slam than they are whenever they enter one. But being in the top four since 2008 and one of the esteemed few that has a winning record against Fed and Djoko and a not too blemished one against Rafa either, you’d think he’d have a less instinctive measure of his own self worth – though perhaps not, given that that presser was given less than an hour after the match.

 

In any case, get on to it Muzz, and soon. I have this horrible vision of you being drawn to play Phillip Kohlschreiber in the not too distant future with no one in your box and Miles Maclagan in his.

 

I agree: let’s not go there.

 

5) And the Others?

 

» I’m trying not to read too much into Sod’s loss to Fed at Flushing.

 

The wind was wreaking havoc, Fed was playing his best tennis of the year – looking back at it now, it was never really going to happen.

 

But I have to raise an eyebrow when Sod goes down in straights to Daveed Ferrer.

 

There’s also the uncomfortable fact that despite his recent success over Rafa and Fed – he’s now lost to both of them in their most recent respective Slam encounters.

 

 AP

 

» Davydenko: Remember him? Actually defending points here and, of course, at the WTF next month.

 

» Too early to diss Berd very much. A first round exit at Flushing is certainly a shocker – though it’s worth remembering how very new it all is to him. If he flames out early here or in Paris, or at the London WTF (assuming he qualifies), we’ll talk.

 

» Don’t expect too much from Delpo until the middle of next year. And then maybe only after that. But you already knew that.

 

» ARod is infected with the passive, top-ten, grinderman bug -- that had hitherto plagued only Novak – until further notice. I almost think less of myself for not expecting very much from him in what’s left of this year.

 

» Daveed Ferrer is  a top ten player – I keep having to remind myself of that. Don’t expect him to give anything less than his insolent, blue-collar, overachieving best to make the most of it.

 

» Mikhail Youzhny has a shot at end of season glory of some kind – and should by rights be made president, of something.