US OPEN 2011: Women's Final Preview

Serena Williams USA (28) v. Samantha Stosur AUS (9). 

by Mad Professah, contributing writer

The 2011 US Open finalists are the two women in the draw with the two best serves in women's tennis. Serena demonstrated the importance of having an effective serve in her 6-2 6-4 drubbing of the now and future World #1 Caroline Wozniacki in a routine semifinal whose result was never in doubt. Serena served 11 aces and hit another 23 winners from all over the court--and she was probably playing at about 80% of her ability. Her "B" game. Wozniacki simply had (and has) no weapons with which to bother Serena and almost no offensive intent or capacity so Serena simply bided her time, broke the 21-year-old Dane at will and was content to serve out the match. When suddenly she played a loose match game at 6-2, 5-3 she calmly broke back easily to reach the final.

Stosur's route to the final was more complicated. She played the unheralded (some would say unknown) Angelique Kerber from Germany, at 6pm on the Grandstand court (capacity 6,000) when the second men's semifinal was still going on on the main stage at Ashe which holds 23,000+. Instead of winning easily, Stosur won a relatively tight 6-3 2-6 6-2 victory. Stosur has had a pretty dramatic tournament overall, playing the longest tiebreak in Grand Slam history in the 4th round (losing it 17-15) against Maria Kirilenko and playing the longest U.S. Open women's match (in terms of games played) against Nadia Petrova in the 2nd round, eventually winning7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-5 in 3 hours, 16 minutes.

Stosur is the probably the only other player in the draw who is not overwhelmed by Serena's physicality. The Australian 27-year-old has very broad shoulders herself and probably an even better kick-serve than Serena's. However, Stosur has one distinct weakness: her backhand. She can either slice it (not very effectively) or she can hit it with two hands, often not very cleanly or powerfully. Sitting in the stands, literally 15 feet from her in the now-famous tiebreak with Kirilenko I was very surprised how softly the ball came off her racquet on the backhand side. Serena can just pin her into the backhand corner with forehands down the line and it will be a very short day. However, Stosur does possess an excellent topspin inside-out forehand so if her footwork is good she may be able to run around her backhand and hit her powerful forehand but unless she hits a winner against a very fit and fast Serena, Stosur will be off the court and unable to reach the reply. Mentally, since Stosur has been in a major final before (losing badly to Francesa Schiavone in the 2010 French Open final) she should not be overwhelmed today, but she simply does not play finals well, having won only twice in 11 attempts. Serena is playing in her 5th U.S. Open final in 12 appearances, with wins in 1999, 2002 and 2008. We all know what Serena's mental toughness is like.

In the 2011 U.S. Open I have correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. This year I have also correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, and 1 of 2 men's semifinals. My prediction for the women's final is that Serena Williams will win her 14th major title, putting her a scan 4 titles away from the all-time greats: Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert (but still behind Steffi Graf's 22).

MadProfessah's pick: Serena Williams.

US OPEN 2011: Women's Semifinals Preview

by Mad Professah, contributing writer

After a rain delay cancelled the scheduled women's quarterfinals matches last night, all four matches were able to be completed today, the women's semifinals are now set.

This year, I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

These are my predictions for the 2011 women's semifinals, which for the first time will be played Saturday night in prime time, with the women's final on Sunday, and the men's final moved to Monday's day session.

Caroline Wozniacki DEN (1) v. Serena Williams USA (28). This is the match on the women's side everyone has been waiting for. Can the putative #1 player in the world prove her dominance against the fan's #1? As the #28 seed Serena has munched through "higher seeded players" Victoria Azarenka (#4), Ana Ivanovic (#16), and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (#17) in the last three rounds. As the #1 seed Wozniacki has dispatched Andrea Petkovic (#10), Svetlana Kuznesova (#15) and unseeded Vania King in the same rounds. Serena and Caroline have met on court twice in their careers (both in 2009), with Serena winning both times.
Wozniacki has only been to one major final, while Serena has won 13 finals and appeared in 3 others, losing to her sister Venus Williams twice (2001 US Open and 2008 Wimbledon) and Maria Sharapova once (2004 Wimbledon). The problem that Wozniacki has is that many people feel that she can be hit off the court. Her game is built around counter-punching, and she (often) plays her best tennis when she is behind in the score. But getting behind on the score against someone as mentally tough as Serena Williams is not the same thing as getting behind the score against 2004 US Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova. It does show that Wozniacki likes pace and can feed off her opponent's power and use it against them. There is no more powerful a female player than Serena, and she will demonstrate the danger of Wozniacki's strategy to blast past her and reach her fifth US Open final. PREDICTION: Serena.


Angelique Kerber GER v. Samantha Stosur AUS (9). Although I didn't pick either one of these players to reach this point in the tournament, I am delighted to see that Samantha Stosur is in her second major semifinal, with an excellent opportunity to reach her second major final, where hopefully she can acquit herself better than she did in the 2010 Roland Garros final. 

Kerber is the only unseeded player among the semifinalists and since she's ranked around 92 in the world will make more money from this tournament than she made in the last year (or two) on the tour. In other words, Kerber is just happy to be here and will not put up much resistance if the match gets tough. The rap against Stosur is that she's mentally fragile, and the fact that she has played 11 tournament finals and only won 2 of them is evidence of that. However, she impressed a lot of people with her mental fortitude in her match against Maria Kirilenko when she lost the second set 15-17 in the longest women's tiebreaker in grand slam history (blowing 5 match points in the process). Stosur was able to survive the emotional rollercoaster of playing such an intense tiebreaker (where twice she was denied match point wins due to Kirilenko's successful electronic line challenges) to win the deciding set relatively easily 6-3. This new toughness should serve the hard-hitting Australian well in the final on Sunday night. PREDICTION: Stosur.

Stanford: This Descent into Despair just got Asymptotic

Morita d. Ivanovic 6-3, 7-5

This is not even funny or tragic anymore. I’m not even sure it qualifies as an upset. In fact, I don’t know what it is. It’s certainly not analysis-worthy any more. For one thing, there ain’t nothing there to analyse.

How many times do we need to be told that she has an ergonomically-challenged service toss?

Or that its all a problem of confidence?

YOU DON’T SAY.

Never fun to see any player struggling – let alone a Slam winning former #1.

And I REALLY  don’t buy into those continual attempts by some to lampoon her success and caricature her as a one-trip pony….a kid that got a lucky break.

Lest we forget, her rise (and arguably some of her best matches) came during 2006-2007 – a time when Serena, Venus, Pova and Henin were all very much in their prime and at the top of their game…..all at the same time. Call it what you want, but that ain’t no fluke.

Even so, 3 years is a long time, and unless you’re a fan (a big fan) and feel a need to fashion colourful laments on how, sink or swim, you’ll be there till the end, it’s likely better to just give her some room to regroup – and she will regroup even if that doesn’t mean winning another Slam or even a position in the top 5 ever again – and say nothing at all. So that’s what I’ll be doing.


 

Kirilenko d. Georges 6-2, 6-3

I know, I know, I don’t get it either.

To be honest I never really believed Julia would follow up on her success early on this year the way, say, Petra has. That doesn’t mean I consider this even a remotely acceptable result.

Having won Stuttgart, and made the semis of Madrid (beating Caro twice in the process *snigger*) she then failed to make the second week at either RG or Wimbledon.  That’s more than simply a letdown.

And now this: a first round exit to Kirilenko – a competent and likeable enough player, but not, quite frankly, in nearly the same league.

Or maybe she is. Maybe I’ve got Julia all wrong – predictions tend, after all, to be anything but predictable.  Maybe Julia will follow the more common debutante route of continuing to languish emerging only sporadically to bag a scalp that is as big as the blaze of publicity it commands.

Frankly, I’ve had my fill of that and am holding out for something better. And not just from Julia.

Stanford: Pretty Sure This Qualifies as #Winning

6-0 6-0 in 47 mins.

And she didn’t face a single break point. Nor did she lose a single point on her first serve. Not one.

“It was me being focused,” Williams said. “I’ve always said if I play my best no one can beat me. Hopefully I can get back to that level.”

Hell, that’s not even a brag (let alone a humblebrag) – more like  a demonstrable law of nature.

Guess that means she’s “back”.

Except we’ve always known that words like that simply don’t feature in Serena’s tennis altereality (neither do “form” and “momentum”). And it bears repeating that Rodionova ain’t even a top 50 player – never has been. But then she ain’t canon fodder either…or, at least, not the type of canon fodder that fails to win even a single game.

So yeah, unsurprisingly surprising. Parrot green ecstasy for her fans. Crisis talks for her “not a fans” and players in her section of the draw. Speaking of which:

“She’s coming back and she’s winning again,” Kirilenko said of Williams. “I need to be focused every minute.”

I’m no Kiri fan, but you have to love how she takes the edge off her imminent destruction with the word “focus”. You can do it with almost anything:

“It’s no longer a question of when but if Murray will win a Slam….he needs to be focused every minute.”

“I’ve spent nearly three unsuccessful years trying to unify Quantum Mechanics with the General Theory of Relativity…..I need to be focused every minute.”

”The worlds biggest economy may default - may not even be able to send out welfare cheques come Tuesday next week…..we have to be focused every minute.”

Assuming Serena doesn’t catastrophically implode between now and Friday, or that “focus” isn’t all its cracked up to be (and it really isn’t, not in itself) Serena will meet Masha in R3.

YES I’ve heard about the “womance” (that is what they’re calling it right?):

“I really like playing Maria and I really admire her and never giving up and developing the confidence that she has… Always just walking around and having so much aplomb, it’s good. I always admired that, it’s really cool.”

…..NO it doesn’t surprise me that two of the greatest competitors this sport has ever seen should have something like mutual admiration.

But then neither do I think there’ll be anything other than cat claws, fire and brimstone on court come Friday. You really do need to focus if you do, and more than just “every minute”.

New rule: Doubles clearly matters, when it’s as cute as this.

 

“The Art of Joy”.

 

 

It’s a little difficult to tell with her back being turned and I’ll admit she’s got nothing on MariKiri (no one has), but if anyone tells me Vika is “joyless” again…

 

Vika (muffled): “…can’t breath….cannnoot breath…”

 

 

 

The trophy in case you were wondering what all the fuss was about.

(Blimey, did someone just tell Kiri that she doesn’t get to keep it?)

 

A week ago, Kiri also picked up the doubles title in San Diego with Zheng Jie and..er…. Rafa/Djoko were ejected out of the first round of Toronto.

 

New rule: Doubles clearly matters, when it’s as cute as this.

 

(Images: Getty)

Day 9: Wounded

Reuters

Rafael Nadal of Spain receives medical treatment as he plays Andy Murray of Britain during their quarter-final match at the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne January 26, 2010.


Reuters

Russia's Maria Kirilenko is tended to by a trainer during her quarterfinal match against Zheng Jie of China at the Australian Open tennis tournament in Melbourne January 26, 2010.


Reuters

Andy Roddick of the United States of America recieves medical attention between games in his quarterfinal match against Marin Cilic of Croatia during day nine of the 2010 Australian Open at Melbourne Park on January 26, 2010 in Melbourne, Australia.

::

Singles - Quarterfinals
[5] A Murray (GBR) d [2] R Nadal (ESP) 63 76(2) 30 ret. (right knee)
[14] M Cilic (CRO) d [7] A Roddick (USA) 76(4) 63 36 26 63

Doubles - Quarter-finals
[1] B Bryan (USA) / M Bryan (USA) d E Butorac (USA) / R Ram (USA) 75 46 76(2)
M Kohlmann (GER) / J Nieminen (FIN) d F Gonzalez (CHI) / I Ljubicic (CRO) 46 61 20 ret. (Ljubicic - right thigh)

Doubles - Third Round
I Karlovic (CRO) / D Vemic (SRB) d [5] L Kubot (POL) / O Marach (AUT) 26 76(11) 76(4)

Women's Singles - Quarterfinals
(WC) Justine Henin (BEL) d. (19) Nadia Petrova (RUS) 76(3) 75
Zheng Jie (CHN) d. Maria Kirilenko (RUS) 61 63

Doubles - Quarterfinals
(2) Williams/Williams (USA/USA) d. (8) Mattek-Sands/Yan (USA/CHN) 64 46 64
(6) Raymond/Stubbs (USA/AUS) d. (13) Dulko/Pennetta (ARG/ITA) 46 62 62

Doubles - Third Round
(1) Black/Huber (ZIM/USA) d. Azarenka/Kuznetsova (BLR/RUS) 63 63

Australian Open 2010 Day 9 Open Thread

Source

It's Australia Day, the day Aussies celebrate the landing of the First Fleet with Captain Phillip and the convicts.

::

We have arrived at the quarterfinals. MadProfessah's picks are here and here.

For today's bottom half matchups, I'm going with Rafael Nadal in four, Marin Cilic in four, Justine Henin in three, and Zheng Jie in three.

For Roddick to avoid the upset, he's going to have to block out his knee pain and hope that his experience can carry him through if Cilic tightens up at the end of sets as he did against Juan Martin del Potro.

If Murray is to have a chance of dismissing a man determined to defend his title.... Scratch that. He has no chance. Oh, he'll make it interesting and give Rafa's fans a few strokes, but he has no chance.

Miss Nadia will have to win in straights -- which I believe she can, here's hoping she does, too -- and MariaK's going to have to believe she belongs in the final four of a Slam.

Who you got?

Order Of Play For Tuesday, 26 January 2010

Rod Laver Arena 11:00 Start Time

1. Women's Singles - Quarterfinals
Justine Henin (BEL) v. Nadia Petrova (RUS)[19]
2. Women's Singles - Quarterfinals
Jie Zheng (CHN) v. Maria Kirilenko (RUS)
3. Men's Singles - Quarterfinals
Andy Roddick (USA)[7] v. Marin Cilic (CRO)[14]

Rod Laver Arena 19:30 Start Time
1. Men's Singles - Quarterfinals
Andy Murray (GBR)[5] v. Rafael Nadal (ESP)[2]

Australian Open 2010: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

by Mad Professah

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year.

Serena Williams USA (1) vs. Victoria Azarenka BLR (7). Serena is playing like a woman on a mission. Her performance against 13 seed Samantha Stosur in the round before was, in a word, scary. Pam Shriver called it the best serving she had seen by a female player, ever. Although at the start of the tournament I did not predict Serena to win this title, mostly because she has only defended a title once in ten attempts and I was also entranced by the odd-year symmetry of her wins down under, after seeing what she did to the Aussie's No. 1 player, I think the rest of the field should be afraid, very afraid. Interestingly, one of the few players who is not afraid of playing Serena is the feisty No. 7 seed from Belarus, who almost derailed Serena here last year, leading by a set and a break before she was overwhelmed by the heat and retired ignominiously. Azarenka did get her revenge by dispatching a clearly injured Serena in straight sets to win the "fifth major" in Miami later that year so I am confident that Serena will take this match very seriously. Azarenka finished off her last match by inflicting a bagel on Vera Zvonareva in the third set, a not uncommon occurrence. What is an uncommon occurrence in this tournament is Serena in trouble on her serve. She is the only player, male or female, who has not had her service broken, and eliminated the three breakpoints she faced yesterday with three aces. An incredible performance indeed. The only question for Serena is whether she is peaking too early, or whether she is going to continue to play at this high-level for the rest of the tournament. If the latter is indeed, true, then Serena Williams be the 2010 Australian Open women singles champion, regardless of what happens in the rest of the draw. PREDICTION: Serena in 3 sets.

Na Li CHN (16) vs Venus Williams USA (6). I really like the play of the veteran Chinese player (so much so I named my dog after her!) and except for the hiccup against Francesca Schiavone in the previous round, Venus has been playing pretty good, if not overwhelmingly aggressive, tennis. With her natural power and athletic ability that is enough to get the older Williams sister through most matches by simply overwhelming most opponents and the relatively diminutive Li Na will most likely be no exception. PREDICTION: Venus in 2 sets.

Elena Dementieva RUS (5) Justine Henin BEL vs. Kim Clijsters BEL (15). Nadia Petrova RUS (19). I really expected to see Elena Dementieva and/or Kim Clijsters in this quarter of the draw, but it looks like the hard-hitting and extremely talented Petrova may have finally quieted the doubting voices in her head and is simply letting her tennis do the speaking for her. She has the game to beat just about anyone when she is playing her best and is one of the prototypical "big babes." Henin is playing in her first major tournament in two years, and is trying to repeat (or overshadow) her Belgian compatriot Clijsters who was able to win a grand slam within a few weeks of her return to the tour from retirement. Henin has looked to be about 80-90% as effective as she was before she left, and I have no doubt that she will be a threat to win any major she enters this year, and a lock in Paris. However, her wins have become increasingly labored with every successive round. This match is the hardest of the four to predict the result (and most likely will be the hardest to watch, as well). PREDICTION: Petrova in 2 sets or Henin in 3.

Jelena Jankovic SRB (8) Jie Zheng CHN vs. Maria Sharapova RUS (14) Maria Kirilenko RUS. The surprise quarterfinalists! I definitely expected a different Maria from Russia to be occupying this quarterfinal berth, but good job for "the Other Maria" to finally break out of the shadow of her best friend on the tour and not only eliminate Sharapova in the first round but continue all the way to the final eight. The second Chinese player in the quarterfinal represents the first time two Chinese players have made it this far simultaneously in a major tournament, with Zheng also having played in the 2008 Wimbledon ladies semifinal. I believe this match will be determined by who wants it more, not by the tennis of the two players. In that case, I prefer to go with the person who has not been here before. Either way, I have serious doubts the person from this quarter will be making it to the final. PREDICTION: Kirilenko in 3 sets.

Day 1: Mariathon

Reuters

They called her Semipova.

From the time she won her first Slam till her second, she was blessed with cupcake draws at most of the majors and bashed her way to the semifinals before succumbing to someone better.

Now, after a career littered with distractions, injuries and disinterest, Maria Sharapova would probably give back $10M of her $70M Nike contract to advance to another one for the first time since she won here two years ago in one of the greatest Slam performances of the decade.

The 3-time Slam champion, highest-paid female athlete in history, and former Melbourne champion was sent packing by her good friend, the more beautiful, if less glamorous, Maria Kirilenko, in the first round.

I thought she'd find a way to win the match and get out of this soft quarter, but it wasn't to be. As someone wrote elsewhere, perhaps if she spent as much time on her serve as she has her fashion design....

Decked out a blueish green thing that looked more like a draped undergarment of seaweed and tinsels -- with a belt -- than a tennis dress, she struck more than 70 unforced errors to lose the match.

The other Maria, dressed in normal attire since Stella McCartney kicked her to the curb for a younger model, fought and choked and recovered and fought to earn one of the biggest upsets of her career. With a simple index finger pressed to her closed lips, she urged her camp to celebrate quietly. She did just beat her very good friend, after all.

Getty

Other than all the errors from both Marias, the marathon was marred by such a lugubrious pace, it was difficult to follow. I was expecting the chair umpire to deliver a eulogy at some point. The first two games of the second set took 27 minutes to complete.

Now matter how beautiful the contestants, channels flipped all over the globe.

Mean time and later, rain soaked the schedule; the Belgian contenders cruised; the suspended/unsuspended/suspended/unsuspended one barely survived; the Scotsman crushed; the top American male prevailed; Oz's favorite tortured female underdog looked as though she'd rather be anywhere else but in front of the fans who made her comeback last year so electrifying; Darren "Killer" Cahill admitted on a live microphone that NFL star Terrell Owens looked a lot like his last boyfriend, "to be honest"; and the top Spaniard debuted his pajama bottoms at the inaugural night Slam match of the new decade.

Ah. Yes.

Tennis.

What's not to love?

Melbourne: Shaza MKO’d.

(Photo: Reuters)

M. Kirilenko d. M. Sharapova 7-6 (7-4) 3-6 6-4

Having never had a great deal of time for Maria-Kiri in the past, this win over Shaza ought to surprise me, except it doesn’t.

The few times I actually saw her play, I remember thinking that the pace on some of her groundstrokes could’ve and should’ve made her a contender, but that she lacked the consistency and belief to propel her to the top of the game – in other words, not that different from any of the other bright young things that fail to illuminate the WTA.

Yesterday was a slightly different story – though by the sounds of it, only for one set (which is all I saw).

During that set, MK played what is arguably the finest tennis of her career – Shaza’s groundies opened up well enough, but she quickly fell prey to those serving foibles of hers that have marred her way back since May of last year.

Soon afterwards, I switched off. Being 11 hours behind Oz means live coverage begins at the Witching Hour – and I wasn’t about to put off sleep for the ‘toil and trouble’ this match had now descended into.

MK had downsized back into her usual tentative self and Shaza, as I woke up to the news of this morning, had somehow found her way to 76 UFEs, making this her first opening round Slam exit since 2003.

And what did you all make of MK's shushing of the crowd (or Shaza?) upon winning match point - weren't these two meant to be the best of friends?

(Photo: Press Association)

A large part of being Shaza however, is about planning the fight back and sticking it to the soothsayers. In that respect at least, she was true to form:

"It's a bad day and you have to get on with your life. There are many worse situations in life," said the former world number one.

…

"A bad day's not going to stop me from doing what I love. I'm still going to go back on the court and work hard and perform. I'll be back here on a Saturday of the second week, so you'll watch."

(BBC)

Yeah, you watch.

It’s a shocker, but I can’t help feeling this isn’t the last ‘shock upset’ we’re destined to see with Shaza.

MK isn’t the worst player in the world – and playing her best against anyone leaking 76 UFEs, should have as good a chance as any of coming out on top.

Shaza’s still capable of kicking-butt at the highest levels, but I suspect those butt-kicking episodes are likely now to be more disconnected, born of a more carefully managed regime of pacing her shoulder – one in which playing at such a high level week-in week out no longer plays a part.

Her ranking might take a hit as a result of that (does that really matter?) – but if she plans it carefully, gets past those serving foibles, I’d like to think it won’t affect her at the Slams.

Except in this instance, it maybe did.

***

In other matches, Murray, Rafa, Delpo, Kimmie, Kuzzie, Dinara and Justine all through safely.

Not to be missed: Justine to play Dementieva in round two – yes as soon as that - the downside of making your retirements ‘pseudo’.

The upside for all the rest of us.