On Monday, the US Open will begin in Flushing Meadows, Queens. This is the final major of the 2010 tennis season and there are numerous storylines that a tennis fan and a casual sports fan should keep an eye on.
The Men
For the men, the number one seed is Rafael Nadal. Nadal did not win a title in the US Open Series, but comes into Queens as the No. 1 player in the world, If he wins this major title, he will become just the seventh male tennis player to capture the career slam. Nadal’s last time on court came in a loss to Marcos Baghdatis of Cyprus back in Cincinnati, but its much tougher to beat the Spaniard in five sets than in three sets.
Roger Federer has been to the finals for the past six years and the win in Cincy might catapult what has been a subpar year for the former world’s number one. Fed won the Australian Open back in January, but has failed to capture another major including not making the semifinals at the French Open or Wimbledon. He was able to hold his serve in a three set win over Mardy Fish in that final, but also lost to Andy Murray in Canada a couple of weeks ago in the final of the ATP Rogers Cup. However, it is tough to top Federer in Flushing. If you don’t believe me, ask Novak Djokovic who has had his US Open ended by Federer each of the last three years.
There are a couple of Americans as well to keep an eye on. Andy Roddick is coming off a case of mononucleosis that he had earlier this summer, but he had a good tournament in Cincy making the semifinals with wins over fifth ranked Robin Soderling and the fourth ranked Djokovic. This year, Roddick’s year has been filled with disappointment in majors, including a 4th round loss to Yen Hsun-Lu and then last year losing in the third round in Flushing to John Isner.
With the draw that Roddick has (Monfils in Round 3, Djokovic in quarters), this could make the possibility of a Roddick-Federer semifinal a reality this year. Mardy Fish had a great summer winning three titles and has stepped up in terms of his fitness level en route to a top twenty ranking. He has a potential tough battle with the Cypriot Baghdatis in round three, but Fish can definitely make the second week up in Flushing.
My sleepers include a former top ten player in David Nalbandian. The Argentine won the Legg Mason Classic in Washington D.C and made the quarterfinals in Toronto. I like him to beat Fernando Verdasco in round three and make the quarterfinals before losing to Rafael Nadal.
For the other American hopefuls, John Isner, who won that 70-68 fifth set against Nicolas Mahut in Wimbledon is coming into Queens with a torn ligament in his shoulder and no one expects him to go deep in this Grand Slam. As for Sam Querrey, he could use a deep run in a Slam to salvage his 2010 season. He won the Farmer’s Classic in Los Angeles over Andy Murray and he could potentially face Murray if the two collide in the round of 16. As always, James Blake is the toast of New York, but don’t expect any better than the third round for the declining American.
Quarterfinals: Nadal over Nalbandian, Berdych over Murray (The Czech beat Murray at the French Open and has finally seemed to find the mental toughness in a major), Roddick over Djokovic, Federer over Soderling
Semfinals: Nadal over Berdych, Federer over Roddick
Final: Nadal over Federer in 4 sets.
The Women
The major storyline is not who is here, but who is not here. Serena Williams withdrew from the US Open with a foot injury and will now not be able to win her third major of 2010. Also, she will not be able to make amends to her 2009 tournament where she got in a verbal altercation with one of the line judges in her semifinal loss to Kim Clijsters. With Serena out, this championship is as wide open as any ladies’ slam I can remember in terms of how many women can win this Slam.
The number one seed is Caroline Wozniacki. I have been on the Dane’s bandwagon all year, but she lost in the 4th Round back in Australia, quarterfinals in France, and 4th Round at Wimbledon all to opponents who were lower ranked than her. Maybe, she will have more success at a tournament that she made the finals in last year. She has brought more power to her game, but she also has a difficult part of the draw that includes past major champions in Maria Sharapova and Svetlana Kuznetsova just to name a few. Wozniacki had a great summer, but I like the surging Sharapova to upset her in the fourth round because Maria brings way more power to the table.
Kim Clijsters is the defending champion of this tournament. Even though she has a minor hip injury, she still had a solid summer, which included a win in Cincy over Sharapova in the final. The Belgian is nearly unbeatable in Queens and she has a couple of tough women in her draw. Venus Williams has also had great success in Flushing with multiple titles, but an injured kneecap prevented her from getting any warmup tournaments in. Elena Dementieva could be her quarterfinals’ opponent, but the Russian is getting back from injury and she does not have any mental toughness when it comes to major tournaments.
With no big American names other than the Williams sisters in the women’s game, Melanie Oudin will be in the spotlight in terms of trying to repeat the cinderella run she had last year. The believe slogan on her shoes was a trademark of last year’s Slam, but she has not followed that up with results in 2010. She will face a qualifier in her first round match, with French Open champ Francesca Schiavone a potential third opponent. However, I don’t think this run will last. I have Oudin losing in Round two to Vera Dushevina of Russia.
Look for the Russian women to take over this Slam, particularly Vera Zvonareva, who made the finals at Wimbledon last month and even Dinara Safina is finally winning some matches. Will Safina make a big run? I don’t think she will, but if she can find it mentally, she can make it to the second week. She has an entertaining first round match with Daniela Hantuchova which will be a show.
Some other non-Russians to watch are Victoria Azarenka and Jelena Jankovic. Jankovic is the four seed in this Grand Slam, but has struggled to achieve any major results in these tournaments with either injuries or inconsistent play. She has made the finals here a couple of years ago before losing to Serena, so with a favorable section, she could emerge as a championship contender. As for Azarenka, she is looking to make her big break in a major for the first time since beating Martina Hingis in the 2007 US Open. She beat Sharapova in the Bank of the West Classic during the summer and has been a popular pick from some experts to take the trophy.
Quarterfinals: Sharapova vs. Kuznetsova, Wickmayer vs. Zvonareva, Azarenka vs. Venus, Dementieva vs. Clijsters
Semifinals: Sharapova over Zvonareva, Clijsters over Venus
Finals: Clijsters over Sharapova in 3 sets.
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