Friday, June 19, 2009

Wimby Men's Draw Revisited...

Well the Wimbledon draw's finally out and I thought I'd make some last minute adjustments (or not) to my picks from earlier this week.

Yes I am being meticulous, seeing as I may not do this again for the rest of the year.

1st Quarter

Look.
Nadal's knee is in a state. I don't care what Pat McEnroe thinks. Besides, I'm sensing some incredibly sour grapes, and a rapidly over-ripening bowl of fruit coming from his direction anyway. I think he's still smarting from the US Davis Cup loss to Spain last year, and is still pretty peeved at what Rafa can almost single-handedly achieve.

Anyway we've been saying it all week and I see nothing in his quarter
that'll lead me to revise the opinion that Rafa will struggle to make the quarters. Quite the reverse in fact. Just take a look at the talent in his quarter. Davydenko, Ferrer, Mathieu, 'Baby Fed' and a possible second round match against Hewitt, someone he just lost to yesterday in straight sets.

There's no great grass court pedigree other than
Roddick and Hewitt. But Davydenko and Ferrer, yep they'll make it real easy on those knees.

One other thing - we also have a lurker in this section in the form of
Tomas Berdych. Yes I know, a headcase. But he has some acrimonious history with Rafa. Remember what happened the last time Rafa played someone he didn't like?

(Winner: Roddick)
(Dark Horse: Tomas Berdych)

2nd Quarter

That said, Murray doesn't have it
that easy either. He's just come off a stinging loss to Gonzo in Paris - that Bagel he suffered has to have left something of an impression. Wawrinka's probably the other biggest threat, and I'm loving what I've been seeing from him this year - remember he lost to Safin last year, so it's not like he can't play on grass.

Then there's
Safin himself, who I want to say good things about, but won't be, seeing as keeping quiet and expecting nowt proved to be a wonderful strategy last year.

Gilles Simon, Ernie
Gulbis. Wish them well. But all a lot of big talk (and no badge).

The guy I want to make a lot of noise about, and who I'm looking forward to seeing most though, has to be Taylor Dent. If you remember his match against
Federer in Miami from earlier this year, you'll understand why. Serve and volley at it's finest. Bags of talent. And very easy on the eye. He said at the time he'd be forgoing the clay court season to concentrate on getting fit - he was pretty out of shape in Miami, coming back as he was from an extended injury layoff.

But as I say, I can't see anyone other than Gonzo and
Wawrinka giving Murray trouble, and Andy will be out for revenge.

(Winner: Murray)
(Dark Horse: Taylor Dent)

3rd Quarter

Well given the state of
Djoko's game right now, I've little reason to change my opinion that del Potro won't prevail in this section of the draw. What I will say though is if Djoko is to go out, it will come sooner rather than later. If he gets to the quarters, he may force his way past del Potro who I still think has a thing or two to learn about big matches against big players.

Much as I loved his match versus
Safin last year, I'm afraid I've lost confidence in Seppi, who I think del Potro will subdue. Don't expect it to be easy though. His flat strokes do wonders for him on grass. Then again so do Juan's. And Juan's serve's way better. So, not so much Andreas. Sorry.

Other players to look out for: Tommy
Robredo, who put right my poor opinion of his game in Paris, but this is grass. A couple of big serving Croatians, in Marin Cilic and Ivan Ljubicic ('Croatia shalt continually produce tall, big serving players that will do well on grass before being upended by injury or simply failing to live up to their talent' [Tomes of Tennisdom: 4-3.24])

Then there's Tommy Haas, who I just
have to pick as my dark horse, given what he achieved in Halle last week. And because I love watching him play. And swearing in German.

(Winner: del Potro)
(Dark Horse: Tommy Haas)

4th Quarter

Mmmm, can I just say Federer and be done with it? Didn't think so.

Well let me just start by saying that this is a
rough draw too.

Kohlschreiber's a magical player, and he'll be happy with what he achieved in Halle, not to mention that big win over Djoko in Paris.

Feliciano Lopez, the grass court Spaniard. Also the biggest Spanish headcase. But also the biggest serving Spaniard, a deft volleyer - and that will do wonders for you on any surface.

Not as big a serve as Dr
Ivo's though, who's beginning to carve out a niche role for himself as the millstone around Roger's neck. I've lost count of how many times I've seen him in Federer's section of the draw. Good news is Roger virtually always comes through.

Robin
Soderling. Well. It certainly is crunch time isn't it? In terms of "Will he/Won't he follow up"? Can play on grass, that much is for certain. And his heavy, flat (ugly) groundies together with that big serve will pose problems for anyone who faces him. That said, I think Roger will do exactly what he did in Paris should he face him.

I'd love to say something good about Jo-Willy and it certainly is his surface to shine. But I'm not liking his lack of confidence recently. Don't think the his time is quite nigh.

The player I'm most interested in is Fernando
Verdasco, who's gone under the radar a little since his exploits from earlier this year. Don't think he's a grassie, never has been, never will be. But he's one of the most confident players in this part of the draw.

(Winner: Federer)
(Dark Horse: Fernando Verdasco)

Semis:

Roddick over Murray in five
Federer over del Potro in four

Final:

Federer over Roddick in four.

Does that cover it?
Are we good?

Alright then.

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