US OPEN 2011: Men's Semifinals Preview

The Fabulous Four meet again:
Djokovic (1) v Federer (3), Nadal (2) v Murray (4)

by Mad Professah, contributing writer

This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals.

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals, with the women's semifinals preview also available.


Novak Djokovic SRB (1) v. Roger Federer SUI (3). This is of course a repeat of last year's instant classic Men's semifinal won by Djokovic after saving 2 consecutive match points in the 5th set. The question is, will this year's result be the same as last year's? Arguably, Djokovic is playing much better now than he did then, but so is Federer. (But clearly Djokovic's improvement over 2010 is larger than Federer's.) Is the fact that Federer is one year older (and now over 30, playing someone who is 24) more significant than the fact that he is the only player to have beaten Djokovic in a best of 5 set match all year? Or is the Serb's juggernaut record of 62-2 for the year more salient? Amazingly, Federer and Djokovic have met during the last weekend of the US Open for the last 5 years and Federer is 3-1 so far (including one final, in 2007). In fact, the Swiss great leads their career head-to-head 14-9, but has lost three times to Djokovic on hard courts this year (including the 2011 Australian Open semifinal where Federer was defending champion). In New York, Federer has actually had the toughest draw of the Top 4 players, facing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11) and Marin Cilic (27). Djokovic has had a much easier time with two retirements in his first 5 rounds and a double-bagel match.  Djokovic's competition has been Nikolay Davydenko, Aleksandr Dolgopolov and an inspired Janko Tipsarevic. Interestingly, his matches have gotten tighter (in the score) as the tournament progresses, while Federer has basically played at the level he needs to win, relative to whoever is on the other side of the net. As most readers know, I am a decided Federer fan and when I started this write-up I intended to make a clear call for The Greatest Of All Time. I'm convinced he can win this match, but I am unsure as to whether he will. Doing the research for this piece has shown me that Djokovic is more likely to win this match, and the title. However, if Federer comes out early playing the kind of tennis he played against Tsonga and Juan Monaco I believe he can win in straight sets. Regardless, I doubt it will match last year's semifinal's shot-making and drama. MadProfessah's pick: Federer in 3 sets OR Djokovic in 4 or 5.

 Andy Murray GBR (4) v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal holds a significant 12-4 career head-to-head over Murray, including a slight 4-3 edge on hard courts. However, their more recent matches on hard courts have been very close, with the most famous being their electric 3-set thriller at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London in 2010, won by Nadal. In matches at the majors, Nadal leads 5-2 but at the 2010 Australian Open Murray was beating the Spaniard like a drum in the quarters when Nadal pulled the ripcord and retired from the match. However, I think what matters most is the match-up today and how they have been playing to date in New York. Nadal has had to get through Andy Roddick (21), David Nalbandian and Gilles Muller. Murray has had to get past John Isner (28), Donald Young and Feliciano Lopez (25). Really both players have had a relatively easy path to the semifinals, although Murray had to survive a 5-set scare against talented Robin Haase in the second round. The Brit is clearly starting to cement his "Fab 4" status, by making the semifinals or better of every major played in 2011(something Djokovic has also managed for the first time this year while Nadal has only done it once, in 2008 and Federer did for five consecutive years in a row from 2005 and 2009). He is showing his consistency and letting his innate talent shine through. Murray also has confidence, being one of two players to have defeated Djokovic in 2011, something Nadal hasn't done. I believe Murray is going to do something he hasn't done before (and which a lot of people don't expect him to do), and beat Nadal in a major semifinal. MadProfessah's pick: Murray in 3 or 4 sets OR Nadal in 5.

US OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinals and R16 Preview

BY MAD PROFESSAH


Due to a complete rain out of play on Tuesday September 7 the men's draw has been thrown into disarray. Because the US Open is the only major which does not have a day off between the semifinals and final, losing a day in which quarterfinals were supposed to be played complicates things dramatically.

Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 2010 men's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 2010 women's quarterfinals.
My predictions for the 2011 women's quarterfinals are also available. Below are my predictions for the two of the 2011 men's quarterfinals hat are set (and four of the Round of 16 matches).

The plan for today, Day 10 of the 2011 US Open, is to both finish off playing the last four round of 16 matches (which just happens to feature three American players: John Isner, Donald Young and Andy Roddick) AND the first two men's quarterfinals, on the same day.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) v. Janko Tipsarevic SRB (20). The World #1 has only lost two matches all year long, and is having one of the all-time great seasons, with a record of 61 win, 9 tournament titles (including 2 majors). It's true that Djokovic almost lost his first set of the tournament in difficult conditions against the funky game of Aleksandr Dologopolov but that does not reflect any diminution in his powers. Tipsarevic is a player whose game Djokovic knows well, since they are from the same country and are fellow Davis Cup team members. Tipsarevic is a very smart player and knows how to be dangerous but it is very doubtful he can end Djokovic's streak in his very first major quarterfinal appearance unless Novak is having a very very bad day. PREDICTION: Djokovic.


 Roger Federer SUI (3) v. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (11). This is the best potential quarterfinal match up and should probably be the best match of this action-packed day. Federer is in his jaw-dropping 30th consecutive major quarterfinal while Tsonga is in his 6th quarterfinal of his career, and his first in New York City, a major which Federer has won more times (5) than Tsonga has been in the draw (4). Because of his injuries and absences from the sport Federer and Tsonga have only met 7 times, 4 of which have come this year, with 2 wins each. However, Tsonga has won the last two times they played, including an amazing result at Wimbledon where he came from 2-sets down to beat Roger in 5, the first time ANYONE had ever done that at a major tournament, let alone on Roger's best surface of grass (which is probably also Tsonga's best surface). So clearly Tsonga now does have the game to beat Roger and can do it if he is playing his best while Roger is not. Happily for Federer, the Swiss showed that he still has some of his best tennis left in him when he dismantled Juan Monaco 6-1 6-2 6-0 in a late-night match prior to Tuesday's deluge. Federer also enjoys a challenge, as evidenced by his glee in handling Djokovic his first loss of the year in Paris to end the Serb's undefeated season. I believe tonight's match will be very close, almost definitely 4 or 5 sets, with Federer coming through for a rematch with Djokovic in the semifinals on Saturday. PREDICTION: Federer.


The following fourth round matches are also being completed today.

Gilles Simon FRA (12) v. John Isner USA (28). For the second round in a row French counterpuncher Simon is taking on a giant, huge serving player. Simon was able to dismiss 6'6" 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin del Potro in four sets on Sunday (which I watched from the fourth row courside in Armstrong) while 6'9" John Isner was able to overcome stiff resistance from speedy Alex Bogomolov, Jr. Simon is a much better player than Bogomolov and unless Isner plays very well, he will face the same fate as Del Potro.This is the match where Isner needs to prove he is not just (in the words of Roger Federer, about another huge-serving American) "a great server" but a great player. Having also seen Isner play close up (from first row courtside in Armstrong) I would say he is not yet a great player, though he is a great competitor. That might be enough against the Frenchman, but I doubt it. PREDICTION: Simon.


Donald Young USA v. Andy Murray GBR (4). Amazingly, the young African American phenom has a win this year over a player named Andy Murray. However, that Andy Murray was recovering from his 3rd consecutive major final loss and is not the same player who handed new World #1 Novak Djokovic only his second loss of the season a few short weeks ago in Cincinnati. Young has finally lived up to his potential to reach the last 16 of a major tournament for the first time, beating 2 seeded players Juan Ignacio Chela (24) and Stanislas Wawrinka (14). By reaching the 4th round Young will receive the largest paycheck of his career. Hopefully he uses it wisely to invest in his game so that his 2011 US Open results are just the beginning of good results and not a fluke. PREDICTION: Murray.


David Ferrer ESP (5) v. Andy Roddick USA (21). This is the toughest match for me to predict in this round. I have not been that impressed with Roddick'splay and I haven't seen a single point of Ferrer's. But I know the Spaniard is always a rough customer, and against Roddick he leads their career head-to-head 5-3 including two crucial Davis Cup wins for Spain over USA (one from 2011). Presumably, Roddick will try and turn this encounter into a home court advantage Davis Cup match as well, but can his 29-year-old game match up to Ferrer's feistiness? PREDICTION: Ferrer.


Gilles Muller LUX v. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Nadal will be interested in making a statement about his fitness after the world saw him cramping up after a press conference after his last match. Muller will be lucky to win a handful of games in each of the three sets played. PREDICTION: Nadal.

USO: Week one Round Up

1) “The match that must not be named”

This one was so bad I still have hangover as I write this.



Quite baffling to realise that up until this match I hadn’t seen very much of Robin Haase. I knew he was an edgy, flamboyant talent who’d been sidelined rather a lot by injury. Beyond that I had heard murmurings of his being a head case.

I now want to “unsee” him.

Not that Murray has anything to be proud of. Nothing these two can do will ever live this down.

We don’t need to analyse  sh*t like this unless we’re interested in what happens when the laws of nature and the moral fabric of the universe break down.

What happened in Ashe stays in Ashe.

2) “Donald not-so-Young”

I suspect my perspective on Donald Young’s journey (there’s a euphemism)  is somewhat different to most Americans. I’ve heard of the brattiness, the run-ins with the USTA, the complexities arising from his parental coaching relationship, of course, but it seems the impression left by this simply hasn’t been as affecting as it has for many on the other side of the pond. Only natural.



Most of the time I simply couldn’t care less, figuring he’s either not worth bothering with or will come of age in his own time.

Amongst other things, this meant I was prepared to vouch for his game without having to disentangle myself from the politics and the snark that I guess is part and parcel of following (and being let down by)  a home grown talent – especially one that makes life so difficult for himself. What I don’t understand is snark for the sake of snark, particularly when it comes from those without any such domestic ties.

When he beat Murray earlier this year, he was mostly derided as ‘Donald Duck’. And Murray was ripped on for losing to ‘Donald Duck’. Few seemed to think it might have had anything to do with his game. 

He didn’t follow up. Very few expected him to. Heavens knows if he’ll do it this time  – I’m not completely sold on the “kid grew up” narrative, he may simply have had another good week. Besides, a 32-year old grinder isn’t the strongest competition.

But that defeat of Murray wasn’t a fluke. And neither is what we’ve seen this past week. And if (heaven forbid) he goes on to beat Murray again in R4, that won’t have been a fluke either.


3) “Dearth, not Death”

If you’ve been paying attention recently, you’ll have heard rather a lot on how tennis is supposed to be “dead” in all of the Grand Slam hosting nations, with the exception, I guess, of France. 




I’m not gonna argue with that. That GB, Aus and the US are going through something of a dry spell talent-wise is common knowledge. Most of what you hear about it, however, is little more than blather. The kind of lazy, cliched blather that more usually goes along with talk of grunting, fist-pumping, and the rankings system.

A dearth is not the quite the same as death: of the 4 American WTA teenyboppers making noise this week, only one, Madison Keys, is ranked outside of the top 400 – two  others are ranked in the top 100 (McHale at #55) with Sloane Stephens hovering just outside at #106.

Were they not to have made a splash this week, were you not nerdy enough to know their rankings and were you to have gone on headlines alone, you simply wouldn’t have known that.

4) Venus Williams

By now we will all have heard that Sjogrens Syndrome is a chronic auto-immune disorder in which the white cells attack the body’s own moisture producing glands. Symptoms include debilitating fatigue and joint pain.

We also know that there is no cure.



With a diagnosis as sobering as that, “Get Well Soon” well-wishes can seem woefully inadequate. A quick Wikipedia search will tell you that you don’t always “get well” from something like this – “symptom management” sometimes being the only option.

Venus has been an iconic feature of the tennis landscape for over a decade.

There’ll be hordes of melancholic fans whenever her career comes to end, whether that’s through ill health or it simply running its course.

Worth remembering, however, that we know next to nothing on how acutely she’s affected. Auto immune illnesses usually have a wide range of severity. Let us hope her case is moderate.

The other thing is that “symptom management” is not always as dreadful as it sounds.  True that this can entail coping with, rather than freeing oneself of, a chronic illness – but it’s also true that the effects of that illness may be mitigated by lifestyle adjustment in less severe cases.

The real question is whether that’s sufficient to compete as an elite athlete in the sport she loves. Doubtless many will desire precisely that. But like a certain 22-time Slam Champion says, her first priority must be to regain her health – with or without tennis. No true fan should wish for anything less.


5) Li No and Petra KvitOver

Never have I felt so wrong about being right :(


Anyone that had been following both players this past year knew there would be a certain amount of “decompression” following their respective Slam epiphanies. My own view was that they were unlikely to reach the quarters and would probably end up going out in an unspectacular tussle in some forgotten corner of week one.

Yes they're both hit and miss. Yes they're both still reeling from the after effects of winning a Slam. Still, a first round exit for two top 10 Grand Slam Champs is unacceptable.


6) Serena v Vika – Match of the tournament.

The first set of this was Serena at her uber-intimidating best. As always, she was out to make a statement – Vika was mere collateral damage and barely managed one game.


The second set was likely the best you’ll see over the entire fortnight.

Some of Vika’s returns of serve may well go on to be remembered as the best tennis of her career. As always her fans are left to rue the fact that where others get serendipity, Vika gets…Serena Williams.

Try and think of the first player that came to mind as drawing the short straw when Serena’s #28 seeding was announced…..YEAH.

No, it doesn’t even surprise me anymore.

Face Of The Day

JD Blom

Arnaud Clement of France on a changeover during his qualifying match against American Donald Young at the Sony Ericsson Open in Key Biscayne, Florida, on March 21, 2011.

Indian Wells 2011 Day 6 Open Thread

I won't belabor the point, but Donald Young "the most complete player" among the American men (okay, *b*, I'm going to leave you alone now!) just ate a bagel at the hands of none other than Tommy Robredo.

Some good match-ups today. I'm en route to Milwaukee to see my mother so I won't be able to see all of them, but enjoy. And by all means discuss.

ORDER OF PLAY - MONDAY, MARCH 14, 2011

STADIUM 1 start 11:00 am

[1] C Wozniacki (DEN) vs [28] M Martinez Sanchez (ESP) - WTA
[4] R Soderling (SWE) vs [32] P Kohlschreiber (GER) - ATP

Not Before 2:30 PM
[20] A Rezai (FRA) vs [16] M Sharapova (RUS) - WTA
[1] R Nadal (ESP) vs [Q] R Sweeting (USA) - ATP

Not Before 7:00 PM
[4] S Stosur (AUS) vs D Safina (RUS) - WTA
Not Before 8:30 PM
[9] F Verdasco (ESP) vs [21] S Querrey (USA) - ATP

STADIUM 2 start 11:00 am

[25] T Robredo (ESP) vs [Q] D Young (USA) - ATP
[11] N Almagro (ESP) vs [23] A Montanes (ESP) - ATP
[20] A Dolgopolov (UKR) vs J Del Potro (ARG) - ATP

Not Before 4:30 PM
[WC] C Mchale (USA) vs [18] N Petrova (RUS) - WTA
J Benneteau (FRA) / R Gasquet (FRA) vs R Federer (SUI) / S Wawrinka (SUI) - ATP

STADIUM 3 start 11:00 am

[9] A Radwanska (POL) vs [24] M Kirilenko (RUS) - WTA
U Radwanska (POL) vs [8] V Azarenka (BLR) - WTA
[Q] S Devvarman (IND) vs X Malisse (BEL) - ATP
[28] G Simon (FRA) vs I Karlovic (CRO) - ATP
[Q] L Hradecka (CZE) vs S Peng (CHN) - WTA

COURT 7 start 11:00 am

C Chuang (TPE) / A Dulgheru (ROU) vs K Jans (POL) / A Rosolska (POL) - WTA
[22] A Kleybanova (RUS) vs [13] F Pennetta (ITA) - WTA
[7] I Benesova (CZE) / B Zahlavova Strycova (CZE) vs S Mirza (IND) / E Vesnina (RUS) - WTA
N Djokovic (SRB) / V Troicki (SRB) vs [7] L Kubot (POL) / O Marach (AUT) - ATP
[5] J Melzer (AUT) / P Petzschner (GER) vs L Dlouhy (CZE) / P Hanley (AUS) - ATP

Face Of The Day

Getty

American Donald Young celebrates match point against Andy Murray of Great Britain during the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden on March 12, 2011 in Indian Wells, California.

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Men's Singles - Second Round
[1] R Nadal (ESP) d [Q] R de Voest (RSA) 60 62
[4] R Soderling (SWE) d M Berrer (GER) 63 76(4)
[Q] D Young (USA) d [5] A Murray (GBR) 76(4) 63
I Karlovic (CRO) d [6] D Ferrer (ESP) 76(3) 63
[9] F Verdasco (ESP) d [WC] R Berankis (LTU) 75 20 ret. (back)
[11] N Almagro (ESP) d [Q] M Russell (USA) 64 64
J Del Potro (ARG) d [14] I Ljubicic (CRO) 57 64 62
X Malisse (BEL) d [15] J Tsonga (FRA) 76(6) 75
[Q] S Devvarman (IND) d [19] M Baghdatis (CYP) 75 60
[20] A Dolgopolov (UKR) d V Hanescu (ROU) 64 64
[21] S Querrey (USA) d J Tipsarevic (SRB) 64 64
[23] A Montanes (ESP) d J Nieminen (FIN) 76(5) 26 [COLOR="Blue"]76(2)[/COLOR]
[25] T Robredo (ESP) d M Zverev (GER) 63 36 75
[Q] R Sweeting (USA) d [27] J Monaco (ARG) 61 06 61
[28] G Simon (FRA) d R Schuettler (GER) 63 76(5)
[32] P Kohlschreiber (GER) d [Q] T Smyczek (USA) 26 62 76(6)

Men's Doubles - First Round
[1] B Bryan (USA) / M Bryan (USA) d F Lopez (ESP) / M Raonic (CAN) 64 75
[7] L Kubot (POL) / O Marach (AUT) d G Garcia-Lopez (ESP) / A Montanes (ESP) 64 62
R Bopanna (IND) / A Qureshi (PAK) d E Butorac (USA) / J Rojer (AHO) 76(4) 64
M Cilic (CRO) / I Karlovic (CRO) d [WC] T Bellucci (BRA) / R Harrison (USA) 64 36 10-8

Women's Singles - Second Round
(1) Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) d. (WC) Sloane Stephens (USA) 63 62
(4) Samantha Stosur (AUS) d. (Q) Laura Pous-Tio (ESP) 62 62
Peng Shuai (CHN) d. (7) Li Na (CHN) 46 63 63
(8) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) d. Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) 64 63
(9) Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) d. Iveta Benesova (CZE) 76(5) 64
(WC) Christina McHale (USA) d. (11) Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) 76(4) 76(7)
(13) Flavia Pennetta (ITA) d. Elena Baltacha (GBR) 64 36 64
(16) Maria Sharapova (RUS) d. Anabel Medina Garrigues (ESP) 75 67(3) 61
(18) Nadia Petrova (RUS) d. Sofia Arvidsson (SWE) 64 76(3)
(20) Aravane Rezai (FRA) d. (Q) Zhang Shuai (CHN) 76(5) 60
(22) Alisa Kleybanova (RUS) d. Agnes Szavay (HUN) 63 75
(24) Maria Kirilenko (RUS) d. Anna Chakvetadze (RUS) 62 13 ret. (dizziness)
Dinara Safina (RUS) d. (26) Daniela Hantuchova (SVK) 76(2) 64
(Q) Lucie Hradecka (CZE) d. (27) Alexandra Dulgheru (ROU) 46 64 64
(28) María José Martínez Sánchez (ESP) d. Simona Halep (ROU) 75 60
Urszula Radwanska (POL) d. (31) Klara Zakopalova (CZE) 63 57 62

Women's Doubles - Second Round
(WC) Jankovic/Pavlyuchenkova (SRB/RUS) d. (1) Dulko/Pennetta (ARG/ITA) 75 75
(4) King/Shvedova (USA/KAZ) d. Grandin/Uhlirova (RSA/CZE) 67(4) 63 10-7
(8) Mattek-Sands/Shaughnessy (USA/USA) d. Kops-Jones/Spears (USA/USA) 64 63

Day 2: Determination

Reuters

Roger Federer is Houdini. Igor Andreev pushed and pushed and pushed but the world No. 1 never backed down. Facing several set points to go down two sets to one in his first Slam match of the decade, Raja took no risks, even with the wind at his back. He looped the ball deep and played wait and see. What he saw was a player who lost his wits and refused to seize the moment. Two forehands in the bottom of the net a few more loose errors and to a tiebreak the third set went.

From there on out, it was all Raja.

A classic choke coupled with a champion's fortitude and what do we get? Another great escape.

Don't bring no boy to do a man's job.

Enough chatter about Raja's genius. A determination deep as desire is much more impressive.

::

All the other contenders on the men's side advanced without too much trouble, though Fernando Verdasco almost found himself down two sets to one against the big serving Aussie Carsten Ball.

Reuters

Young American Donald Young seems determined to prove himself. He advanced to the second round over Christophe Rochus in a match without cameras. Too bad. A ball kid peed on himself during the match, delaying play for 40 minutes. Four wins in a row Down Under. Can he win another?

Reuters

Richard Gasquet remains determined to become the biggest waste of talent of his generation. The Sydney finalist was supposed to take his second chance at a career and do something with it. Instead, he squandered a two-set-to-love lead and let Mikhail Youzhny go through. Was kind of pitiful, actually. The Frenchman really needs to grow a pair.

Reuters

Venus Williams was determined not to lose to Lucie Safarova at another Slam. She was aggressive from first point to last and never gave the poor girl a chance.


Reuters

Darkhorse Vania King squandered two match points on serve in the second set of her war with Dominika Cibulkova, fell behind 1-5 in the final set, and reeled off the last six games of the match to advance to the second round. Talk about determination. Another affair with no cameras. We'll have to imagine what transpired in final set. That section of the draw, weak to begin with, now open as a canyon.

Getty

And in a quiet story on few people's radar, qualifier Louk Sorensen has advanced to the second round. He's the first Irishman in the main draw of a Slam in 25 years and the first ever to win a Slam match.